U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 5/14/13. UUP price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/14/13, reconfirming its major downtrend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 18 months on 5/14/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. OEF/SPY turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it fell back down below its 50-day SMA.
U.S. stocks opened higher and continued to rise all morning. The stock market leveled out in the early afternoon until a last hour rally propelled prices above all previous highs.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,650.34) finished up 1.01%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.69%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.82%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 1.92%.
NYSE total volume rose 18% to a level 4% above its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price rise confirms that price rise, while falling volume on a price rise may indicate diminishing buying power behind that advance.
Breadth was positive, with 2,634 Advances and 1,412 Declines, and with 2,688 million shares Advancing Stock Volume compared to 961 million Declining Stock Volume.
Some, but not all, daily stock market price momentum oscillators continue to diverge bearishly, as they have for many weeks and months already, even as most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Some have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 71.49 on 5/14/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a higher high. In addition, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs and the number of daily net new highs on the NYSE failed to rise to higher highs. Other momentum oscillators recently confirmed higher highs, however, so the evidence appears mixed at this time. Momentum oscillator divergences are important because they are leading indicators of price.
My interpretation of the technical indicators has been that the medium-term stock market uptrend evident since November may have been overdone, and the stock market seemed overdue for a significant downside correction. Based on normal market behavior observed over many years past, that interpretation still seems reasonable. With the Fed providing massive artificial stimulus by buying securities at an unprecedented pace of $85 billion of a month, the bullish majority of investors have been questioning whether past normal standards of market behavior apply. Massive money printing out of thin air can’t continue forever, however, and the markets may be vulnerable once investors begin to anticipate the end of inflationary monetary policy.
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The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/6/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average followed the lead of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average by finally closing at a new price high.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/14/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). EFA absolute price peaked on 5/8/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 18 months on 5/14/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. OEF/SPY turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it fell back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new closing price high on 5/14/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/7/13 when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new closing price high on 5/14/13.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices, however. Support 114.62, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 106.56, 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 5/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 5/6/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and turned systematically bearish on 5/3/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 5/14/13. UUP price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/2/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, however, USO had been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 33.28, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 137.26, 135.85, and 130.51. 142.55. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 21.96, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/24/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down its 50-day SMA on 5/13/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.82% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
9.05% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
2.14% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.33% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
5.65% , BBY , BEST BUY
3.41% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
2.97% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.03% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
4.40% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
3.10% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
2.62% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
4.98% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
0.94% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
3.27% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
1.45% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
4.38% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
4.08% , HES , AMERADA HESS
1.58% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.25% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
3.29% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.51% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.43% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
2.65% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
2.39% , C , CITIGROUP
1.85% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
9.76% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
2.09% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
3.31% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
1.19% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.50% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.95% , NKE , NIKE STK B
1.94% , ALL , ALLSTATE
2.26% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.97% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-0.76% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.06% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.78% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.67% , CI , CIGNA
-2.20% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.84% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.90% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-0.80% , NE , NOBLE
-0.27% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.71% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.40% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.58% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.34% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.29% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.93% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
-0.70% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-0.13% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.24% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.17% , EMC , EMC
-1.09% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.55% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.50% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.15% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.43% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.10% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.32% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.03% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.37% , DELL , DELL
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.14% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.96% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.91% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.87% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.85% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.81% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.71% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.58% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.49% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.48% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.42% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.40% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.38% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.38% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.35% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.33% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.32% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.31% , India PS, PIN
1.28% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.28% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.27% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.24% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.24% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.23% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.22% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.21% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.20% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.20% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.19% , Water Resources, PHO
1.19% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.19% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.19% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.19% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.18% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.17% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.14% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.13% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.13% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.12% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.11% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.10% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.06% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.05% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.04% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.04% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.03% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.03% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.03% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.02% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.02% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.01% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.01% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.99% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.95% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.94% , Austria Index, EWO
0.91% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.90% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.90% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.88% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.86% , Energy Global, IXC
0.84% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.80% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.72% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.70% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.68% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.68% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.67% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.67% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.65% , Global 100, IOO
0.62% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.60% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.54% , Germany Index, EWG
0.53% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.53% , Italy Index, EWI
0.52% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.51% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.50% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.48% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.47% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.46% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.44% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.42% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.41% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.40% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.40% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.39% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.38% , Networking, IGN
0.37% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.34% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.32% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.31% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.31% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.29% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.28% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.28% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.23% , Dividend International, PID
0.22% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.21% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.19% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.19% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.17% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.16% , France Index, EWQ
0.14% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.11% , Australia Index, EWA
0.11% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.10% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.09% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.08% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.08% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.05% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.00% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.10% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.10% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.13% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.15% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.16% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.16% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.24% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.25% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.27% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.27% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.29% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.34% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.39% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.40% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.43% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.45% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.50% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.50% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.51% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.55% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.60% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.87% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.89% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.06% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.09% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.14% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1651.10, intraday high of 5/14/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1622.70, intraday low of 5/8/2013
1574.88, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1473.75, 200-day SMA
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
