U.S. Stock Index Bulls Proving Very Resilient

* Latest Market Developments *

(Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff)

It’s likely to be a quieter trading day in the U.S., due to the Veterans Day holiday Tuesday. U.S. stock indexes were firmer in overnight trading and are hovering at or near their record or multi-year highs. The past few weeks have seen more of a “risk-on” trader mentality in the market place, to the detriment of safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold.

In overnight news, the Japanese yen fell to a seven-year low versus the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan’s effort to deflate its currency appears to be working. The Japanese Nikkei stock index hit a seven-year high overnight.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the NFIB small business index, and the Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales reports.

(Note: Follow me on Twitter–@jimwyckoff–for breaking market news.)

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (Geopolitical risks have been moved to the back burner of the market place…for now.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading and hit another record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 2,039.00 and then at 2,050.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,021.00 and then at 2,010.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and hovering near last week’s 14-year high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 4,177.00 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 4,150.00 and then at 4,135.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are hovering near the record high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 17,600 and then at 17,650. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 17,500 and then at 17,440. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 2/32 and then at 141 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 140 17/32 and then at last week’s low of 140 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.11.0 and then at 126.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.02.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. Prices are hovering near the recent contract and four-year high scored last Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 88.155 and then at the contract high of 88.315. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.770 and then at 87.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are hovering just above a three-year low. Bears remain in solid overall near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.42 and then at last week’s low of $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Monday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report was a bit bearish for soybeans and a bit bullish for corn. Recent price action suggests all of the big, bearish supply news may now be factored into grain futures prices. The grain market bulls are working to keep their fledgling price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. Traders will also keep a close eye on the important “outside markets”—crude oil and the U.S. dollar index—which have lately been favoring the bearish camp.