* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks were supported by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% rise in German industrial output in December. The Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged following its latest meeting, as expected. The market place is now awaiting news from the European Central Bank’s monthly meeting, including a press conference by ECB chief Mario Draghi. The ECB is also expected to leave its interest rates unchanged, but Draghi may tip his hand on
monetary policy changes at his press briefing. On Friday China will issue a fresh batch of economic data, including inflation and trade balance reports. The market place will closely scrutinize the ECB meeting results and the data coming out of China. Next week, China will be on holiday for the Lunar New Year. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes weekly jobless claims, preliminary productivity and costs, chain store sales data, and consumer credit.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading today and poked to another five-year high overnight. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,520.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,750.00 and then at the January high of 2,764.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,725.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,709.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,900 and then at Wednesday’s low of 13,860. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of 13,960 and then at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143 22/32 and then at this week’s high of 143 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 143 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 142 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and hovering not far above the recent 4.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 131.22.0 and then at 131.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.07.5 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 79.93 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.49 and then at 79.40. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $97.50 and then at this week’s high of $97.76. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.44 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight. Bulls are fading as the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon may be at hand for the
grain markets. Grain traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report for better direction.