Monday, October 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures prices and firmer crude oil prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The psychology of the stock market investor seems to be a bit less bearish and less fearful to start out the new trading week. However, it will take solidly higher closes in the stock indexes today to begin to suggest the worst of the credit market crisis and stock market declines are behind.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading, on short covering in a bear market.
December S&P 500: A bearish symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 926.00 and then at Friday’s low of 908.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 966.20 and then at Friday’s high of 987.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 928.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 943.00
1st Support:——– 898.50
2nd Support:——– 863.50
1st Resistance:—– 978.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,022.50
December Nasdaq Index: A bearish descending triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,302.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday’s low of 1,270.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,354.00 and then at Friday’s high of 1,373.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,309.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,318.00
1st Support:—— 1,263.00
2nd Support:—— 1,215.00
1st Resistance:— 1,366.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,421.00
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,800 and then more stops just below support at 8,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,900 and then just above resistance at 9,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,862
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,923
1st Support:—— 8,567
2nd Support:—— 8,364
1st Resistance:— 9,127
2nd Resistance:— 9,484
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are steady to weaker early today. Recent downside price action has produced serious near-term chart damage, amid ideas the worst of the financial crisis is over. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the last week’s low of 112 17/32 and then at 112 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 2/32 and then at 113 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 2/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 113 13/32
1st Support:—– 112 5/32
2nd Support:—– 111 10/32
1st Resistance:– 114 8/32
2nd Resistance:– 115 16/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 112.04.0 and then at 112.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 111.19.0 and then at last week’s low of 111.12.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 112 3/32
1st Support:—– 111 9/32
2nd Support:—– 110 22/32
1st Resistance:– 112 22/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 16/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at overnight high of 82.97 and then at last week’s high of 83.10. Shorter-term support is seen at the 82.50 and then at the overnight low of 82.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 82.03. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at last week’s low of 1.3341 and then just below support at the October low of 1.3280. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3510 and then at 1.3600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3560. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, on short covering. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $811.80 and then at Friday’s high of $816.90. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $790.00 and then at the overnight low of $782.80. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $815.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today, on short covering. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $74.28 and then just above resistance at 75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $72.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $74.74. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering and amid less fear in the financial market place amid rebounding stock index prices early today. My bias is still that corn and soybeans will put in “harvest lows” in the next few weeks, or sooner.
