Tuesday, October 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices, lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.

* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

My bias is that crude oil futures prices will touch $60.00 a barrel, or below, in the coming weeks. The price trend in crude remains solidly down amid weakening world economies.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading as the bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: A bearish symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 950.00 and then at Monday’s low of 926.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 992.20 and then at 1,000.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 953.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 969.65
1st Support:——– 946.80
2nd Support:——– 903.15
1st Resistance:—-1,013.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,036.15

December Nasdaq Index: A bearish descending triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,320.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,300.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,360.75 and then at 1,373.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,309.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,338.70
1st Support:—— 1,312.35
2nd Support:—— 1,264.70
1st Resistance:— 1,386.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,412.70

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,100 and then more stops just below support at 9,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,300 and then just above resistance at 9,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,104

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 9,616
1st Support:—— 9,021
2nd Support:—— 8,726
1st Resistance:— 9,466
2nd Resistance:— 9,617

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer early today, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 17/32 and then at 113 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 1/32 and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 2/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 113 14/32
1st Support:—– 113 even
2nd Support:—– 112 6/32
1st Resistance:– 114 8/32
2nd Resistance:– 114 22/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 113.24.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.01.0 and then at 112.12.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.03.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———– 112 23/32
1st Support:—– 112 5/32
2nd Support:—– 111 even
1st Resistance:– 113 28/32
2nd Resistance:– 114 14/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today and hit a fresh contract high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at overnight contract high of 84.04 and then at 84.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.33 and then at 83.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 82.73. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading and hit a fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3150 and then just below support at 1.3100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3340 and then at 1.3400. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3401. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $790.00 and then at $800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at last week’s low of $772.20 and then at $762.80. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $791.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then just above resistance at 75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $71.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $74.74. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, amid bearish “outside markets”–a stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices. My bias is still that corn and soybeans have or will soon put in “harvest lows.” Wheat likely has some more downside pressure forthcoming.