OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature overnight and in early morning electronic trading is that the dollar is strongly higher versus the other major currencies. Gold is lower, crude oil prices are lower, bonds and notes are steady and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. Grains were mostly lower in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major market-moving news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the durable good orders report, which will be closely watched by financial markets.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Trading has become choppy this week. My bias is that trading will be choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market.
September S&P 500: We’ve now seen a shorter-term “collapse in volatility” in this market, which does suggest a bigger price move is on the horizon. Price action this week has seen a wedge pattern from on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are now neutral. The 4-day moving average has moved above the 9-day. But the 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are also neutral today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,247.30–this week’s low. Heavier sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,242.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at this week’s high of 1,268.30. Heavier stops are likely located just above that price level, and then just above shorter-term resistance at 1,272.00.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. But the 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at this week’s low of 1,560.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,605.00. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above this month’s high of 1,646.00.
September Dow: Bulls are gaining near-term power. For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 11,060 and then just below support at 11,000. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 11,210 and then just above resistance at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and poised to move above the 18-day today. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back higher. Shorter-term oscillators favor the bulls today.