Thursday, October 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is modestly rebounding U.S. stock index prices and lower gold prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Strong technical resistance in December gold futures at the September high of $932.00 an ounce was not penetrated on the upside Wednesday. And now prices have backed off today. That price level will have to be penetrated on the upside and negated to provide the gold market bulls with fresh technical power. My bias is that the upside in gold is limited in the present deflationary environment and amid a much stronger U.S. dollar.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are modestly higher in early morning trading on short covering following losses Wednesday. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 985.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 971.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,009.20 and then at 1,025.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,015.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————– 995.60
1st Support:——– 947.95
2nd Support:——– 914.90
1st Resistance:— 1,028.65
2nd Resistance:— 1,076.30
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,330.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1,309.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,368.75 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1,395.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,379.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,332.10
1st Support:—— 1,269.20
2nd Support:—— 1,218.35
1st Resistance:— 1,382.90
2nd Resistance:— 1,445.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,300 and then more stops just below support at 9,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,500 and then just above resistance at 9,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,615
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 9,347
1st Support:—— 9,034
2nd Support:—— 8,867
1st Resistance:— 9,514
2nd Resistance:— 9,827
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are mixed early today. Wednesday’s big downside price action has spooked the bulls and the bulls need to show fresh power soon.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 1/32 and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 4/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 10/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 119 9/32
1st Support:—– 116 23/32
2nd Support:—– 114 26/32
1st Resistance:– 121 6/32
2nd Resistance:– 123 24/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 114.16.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the September low of 114.00.5 and then at 114.24.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.01.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 115 27/32
1st Support:—– 113 20/32
2nd Support:—– 112 1/32
1st Resistance:– 117 14/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 21/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.45 and then at the contract high of 82.03. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 80.59 and then at 80.22. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.89. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3600 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.3621. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3800 and then at the overnight high of 1.3835. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3738. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at the overnight high of $914.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $885.00 and then at $880.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $891.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $89.82 and then just above resistance at 91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $87.32 and then more sell stops just below support at $86.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $92.58. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading on short covering.
The “outside markets” are neutral today–steady crude oil prices and a steady U.S. dollar. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA crop production report. The grain traders may be starting to focus a bit more on grain market fundamentals than the outside markets.
