OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is firmer U.S. stock indexes and firmer crude oil prices. Gold is trading near steady. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower versus the other major currencies. U.S. Treasuries are slightly lower.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is jobless claims, the leading economic indicators report, DOE natural gas stocks report, USDA weekly export sales, the Philadelphia Fed survey, FOMC minutes, and Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks before a House of Representatives committee. Given that Bernanke spoke just yesterday, his remarks won’t be as critical today, but will be closely monitored, still.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, on follow-through strength from gains seen Wednesday. If the bulls can end this week on a positive note, that would suggest near-term lows are in place in the stock indexes.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish. However, the 4-day moving average has turned north and could move above the 9-day as soon as today. The 9-day is below above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,255.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under technical support at Wednesday’s low of 1,244.20. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Wednesday’s high of 1,269.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at Friday’s high of 1,280.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,258.50
1st Support:—— 1,248.00
2nd Support:—— 1,233.50
1st Resistance:— 1,273.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,283.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still bearish. However, the 4-day is turning higher and may move above the 9-day moving average today. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,476.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops likely reside below solid support at the contract low of 1,458.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 1,510.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,530.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,492.50
1st Support:—— 1,474.75
2nd Support:—— 1,459.00
1st Resistance:— 1,508.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,526.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,000 and then more stops just below support at of 10,910. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 11,087 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish today, but the 4-day moving average is turning back north. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 10,987
1st Support:—— 10,886
2nd Support:—— 10,725
1st Resistance:— 11,148
2nd Resistance:— 11,249
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly lower in early trading in Chicago, on a corrective pullback from good gains Wednesday. Follow-through buying strength today would be significantly bullish for Treasuries.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this month’s high of 107 26/32. Heavier buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 even.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 107 6/32
1st Support:—– 106 222/32
2nd Support:—– 105 24/32
1st Resistance:– 108 4/32
2nd Resistance:– 108 20/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bearish again today. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid resistance the July high of 105.16.5, and then more buy stops just above resistance at 105.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.08.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 105.04.0
1st Support:—— 104.26.0
2nd Support:—— 104.06.0
1st Resistance:— 105.24.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.02.0