OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no real feature overnight or in early morning electronic trading. The dollar is weaker versus the other major currencies. Gold is near steady, crude oil prices are slightly lower, bonds and notes are slightly lower and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. Grains were solidly lower in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major market-moving news overnight, or over the weekend.
Monday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is new home sales data and the Dallas Federal Reserve’s manufacturing production index. Traders are keenly awaiting Thursday’s FOMC meeting, in which it’s expected that U.S. interest rates will be hiked again.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Trading has become choppy recently. My bias is that trading will be choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market. I don’t look for the recent lows to be taken out any time soon.
September S&P 500: We’ve still seen a shorter-term “collapse in volatility” in this market, which does suggest a bigger price move is on the horizon. Price action recently has also seen a wedge pattern from on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. But the 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are also neutral today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,251.10–Friday’s low. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. Heavier sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at last week’s low of 1,247.30. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at 1,260.00. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at Friday’s high of 1,264.00.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still neutral today. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. But the 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at last week’s low of 1,560.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 1,585.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above last week’s high of 1,605.00.
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday’s low of 11,047 and then just below support at 11,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance Friday’s high of 11,152 and then heavier stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,210. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and poised to move above the 18-day today. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back higher. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices slipped to a fresh five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Slow stochastics still show the market being way short-term oversold and due for a corrective bounce very soon. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106 7/32–Friday’s high–and then at 106 15/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 105 16/32 and then at 105 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early morning dealings. Slow stochastics still show the market as being well oversold and due for a rebound very soon. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at Friday’s high of 104.15.5, and then just above resistance at 104.21.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below solid support at 104.00.0, and then just below support at 103.24.0.