* Latest Market Developments *
NOTE: My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report today, as I am out of the office to attend my brother-in-law’s funeral.—Jim
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 3768.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3937.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3937.63. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 3991.25. First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July crossing at 3846.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 3768.34.
The September S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of the February-July-rally crossing at 1885.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1961.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1961.50. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 1985.60. First support is the 25% retracement level of the February-July-rally crossing at 1920.19. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-July-rally crossing at 1885.01.
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last Thursday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 140-16 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday’s low crossing at 136-14 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 139-03. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 140-16. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 136-14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 134-11.
ENERGY MARKETS: September Nymex crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 95.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.08 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 103.45. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 97.09. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 95.83.
CURRENCIES: The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this summer’s rally, last November’s high crossing at 82.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2013-2014-decline crossing at 81.61. Second resistance is last November’s high crossing at 82.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.79.
GRAINS: December corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this summer’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May’s high, monthly support crossing at 3.48 is the next downside target. While the market is thoroughly convinced that we will produce a record corn crop, there are a number of areas across the Midwest that need a rain this week or those lofty yield expectations might have to be peered back from current expectations. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.69 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.61. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.48.
December wheat was higher overnight and trading above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.58 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.58 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.84 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.42 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.00.
November soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer’s decline, psychological support crossing at 10.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.16 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 11.16 1/2. Second resistance is the July 7th gap crossing at 11.32 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 10.54. Second support is psychological support crossing at 10.00.
