OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is firmer U.S. stock index prices. Gold is lower and crude oil prices are near steady. U.S. Treasuries are firmer early.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the ICSC store sales index, the New York Fed manufacturing index, the Producer Price Index, Redbook retail sales, Treasury international capital inflows and the NAHB housing index. The PPI report will be most important.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, following tepid gains Monday that did see prices close near their session lows. We are in the “dog days” of August, which likely means lackluster and trendless trading until the end of the month.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but just barely. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday’s low of 1,270.90. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,265.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,280.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at last week’s high of 1,288.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,275.75
1st Support:—— 1,268.20
2nd Support:—— 1,263.50
1st Resistance:— 1,280.65
2nd Resistance:— 1,288.10
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday’s low of 1,497.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at last week’s low of 1,482.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,523.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at the August high of 1,538.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,507.00
1st Support:—— 1,490.75
2nd Support:—— 1,481.50
1st Resistance:— 1,516.33
2nd Resistance:— 1,532.50
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 11,105 and then more stops just below support at last week’s low of 11,071. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,200 and then more buy stops just above resistance at Monday’s high of 11,233. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,157
1st Support:—— 11,081
2nd Support:—— 11,029
1st Resistance:— 11,209
2nd Resistance:— 11,285
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are trading firmer in early trading in Chicago. Bears again have the near-term technical advantage and near-term tops appear to be in place.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but is turning lower. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday’s high of 108 8/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 108 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 108 2/32
1st Support:—– 107 27/32
2nd Support:—– 107 24/32
1st Resistance:– 108 5/32
2nd Resistance:– 108 12/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 106.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 106.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 105.28.0
1st Support:—— 105.23.0
2nd Support:—— 105.21.0
1st Resistance:— 105.30.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.03.0
