Thursday, October 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index futures prices and weaker crude oil prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Wednesday’s action in the U.S. stock indexes–big and record-setting downside price pressure following losses Tuesday–now suggests a retest of last week’s contract lows in the indexes, or below, in the near term. U.S. economic reports are now becoming even more dour, and very importantly, U.S. consumers are significantly cutting spending amid the uncertainty. U.S. investors also have a disdain for owning stocks after reading their latest 401k statements.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading, on a corrective bounce following huge losses Tuesday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 900.00 and then at the overnight low of 880.60. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 925.00 and then at 950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 928.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 936.55
1st Support:——– 864.80
2nd Support:——– 826.25
1st Resistance:—– 975.10
2nd Resistance:— 1,046.85
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the contract low of 1,197.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,150.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,275.00 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,309.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,279.35
1st Support:—— 1,174.70
2nd Support:—— 1,120.35
1st Resistance:— 1,333.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,438.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,500 and then more stops just below support at 8,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,700 and then just above resistance at 8,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,644
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,723
1st Support:—— 8,246
2nd Support:—— 7,988
1st Resistance:— 8,981
2nd Resistance:— 9,458
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near steady early today. Recent big downside price action has produced serious near-term chart damage, amid ideas the worst of the financial crisis is over. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 29/32 and then at 115 13/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 113 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 30/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 114 13/32
1st Support:—– 113 26/32
2nd Support:—– 112 22/32
1st Resistance:– 115 17/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 4/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 112.17.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 112.27.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 111.26.5 and then at this week’s low of 111.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.02.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 112 4/32
1st Support:—– 111 26/32
2nd Support:—– 111 5/32
1st Resistance:– 112 25/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 3/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.10 and then at the contract high of 83.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.31 and then at 82.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 82.03. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3400 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.3341. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3525 and then at 1.3600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3560. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $840.00 and then at the overnight high of $852.10. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $831.10 and then at $822.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $866.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today and hit another fresh 13-month low overnight. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then just above resistance at 76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.21 and then more sell stops just below support at $70.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $76.37. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading, amid lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. This week’s price action suggests the bears still have some near-term technical strength. If the key “outside markets” remain bearishly postured, then the path of least resistance for the grains will continue to be sideways to lower in the very near term. However, my bias is still that corn and soybeans will put in “harvest lows” in the next few weeks, or sooner.
