Tuesday, October 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly higher U.S. stock index futures prices, higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.

* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Monday’s mammoth and record-setting gains in the U.S. stock indexes is seeing important solid follow-through buying strength in early trading today. If the stock indexes can close with solid gains today, that would be a strong technical clue that the indexes have put in major lows. However, I would be surprised to see V-Bottom reversal patterns produced on the daily bar charts in the stock indexes. More likely would be more choppy and sideways price action, with a slight upside bias in the coming weeks.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning trading. Bulls have gained some near-term technical momentum.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,030.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1,010.90. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,050.10 and then at 1,075.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,060.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————– 981.20
1st Support:——– 955.85
2nd Support:——– 873.00
1st Resistance:— 1,053.05
2nd Resistance:— 1,089.40

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,451.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,425.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,500.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,495.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,305.20
1st Support:—— 1,351.35
2nd Support:—— 1,244.20
1st Resistance:— 1,512.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,566.20

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,700 and then more stops just below support at 9,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,800 and then just above resistance at 9,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,718

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 9,254
1st Support:—— 8,999
2nd Support:—— 8,490
1st Resistance:— 9,762
2nd Resistance:—10,117

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near steady early today. Recent big downside price action has produced serious near-term chart damage.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a three-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 13/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 14/32 and then at 114 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 15/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 115 11/32
1st Support:—– 114 3/32
2nd Support:—– 113 8/32
1st Resistance:– 116 6/32
2nd Resistance:– 117 14/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh three-month low overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 112.20.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.00.0 and then at 111.18.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.10.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———– 112 17/32
1st Support:—– 111 30/32
2nd Support:—– 111 19/32
1st Resistance:– 112 28/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 15/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today on profit-taking pressure. No serious chart damage has been inflicted but the bulls are fading and need to show power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.73 and then at 82.03. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.00 and then at 80.59. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.67. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3700 and then just below support at 1.3650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3800 and then at 1.3850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3885. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today, on short covering. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $857.40 and then at $870.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $840.00 and then at the overnight low of $833.60. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $866.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $85.00 and then just above resistance at 86.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.50 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $81.88. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $85.77. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, amid bullish “outside markets”–higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar, and as stock markets worldwide continue to rebound. Bulls are gaining more confidence that harvest lows are now in place and that prices can work sideways to higher into the end of the year.