Friday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly higher U.S. Treasury prices and weaker U.S. stock index futures prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is the last trading day of the week and of the month, which makes it a technically important trading day. Also, given that today is the day after the Thanksgiving holiday and many traders took a four-day weekend, trading conditions are likely to be thin in most markets.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today. After four straight winning sessions, the stock index bulls have likely become exhausted.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 875.10 and then at 850.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 893.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 840.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 867.85
1st Support:——– 848.00
2nd Support:——– 809.75
1st Resistance:—– 906.10
2nd Resistance:—– 925.95
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,125.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,200.00 and then at 1,230.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,161.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,171.60
1st Support:—— 1,147.20
2nd Support:—— 1,099.85
1st Resistance:— 1,218.90
2nd Resistance:— 1,243.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,600 and then more stops just below support at 8,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 8,720 and then just above resistance at 8,800. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,776
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,569
1st Support:—— 8,419
2nd Support:—— 8,139
1st Resistance:— 8,849
2nd Resistance:— 8,999
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are higher in early trading today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid continued moves to the safest-haven investment vehicles in the world.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 128 even and then at the overnight low of 127 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 128 28/32 and then at 129 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 125 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 127 29/32
1st Support:—– 127 1/32 2nd Support:—– 126 4/32
1st Resistance:– 128 26/32
2nd Resistance:– 129 22/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh contract high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 123.05.5 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 122.16.0 and then at 122.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 121.15.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 121 31/32
1st Support:—– 121 6/32 2nd Support:—– 120 5/32
1st Resistance:– 123 even
2nd Resistance:– 123 25/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 87.50 and then at 88.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 87.00 and then at 86.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2650 and then just below support at 1.2600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2750 and then at 1.2800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $818.80 and then at Wednesday’s high of $824.60. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at this week’s low of $803.70 and then at $800.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $781.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $54.00 and then just above resistance at $55.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $53.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $52.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $53.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are bearish early today–crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is firmer. U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Trading has turned choppy in the grains, and within trading ranges. Such may be the case during the month of December, too.
