U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 6/3/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).
U.S. stocks fell below the lows of the previous 3 weeks by 11:28 a.m. but reversed to the upside in the afternoon to close higher. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,640.42) finished up 0.59% and Nasdaq rose 0.27%, although NYSE Advances lagged Declines. Volume held up at a relatively high level.
Despite months of technical divergences and a clear loss of upside momentum in recent weeks, the great majority of investors remain bullishly complacent. The Bullish Majority assumes (hopes) that the stock market will again find its old bullish resilience, that bullish momentum will again feed on itself, and the “Buy-the-Dip” mentality won’t quit until the Fed quits its “highly accommodative monetary policy”. Focusing on the rear view mirror following an uptrend, the Bulls overestimate the market’s ability to continue in a trend, while underestimating risks and the natural tendency of all markets to move both up and down, going from overbought to oversold, just as they always have.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/20/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 5/29/13 when price fell below both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.59, 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/31/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 4/4/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.21% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.72% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
3.43% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
1.36% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
3.14% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
0.99% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
3.75% , MRK , MERCK & CO
0.72% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
1.72% , PKI , PERKINELMER
3.95% , INTC , INTEL
1.00% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
0.45% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.00% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.33% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
2.21% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
2.44% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.92% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.86% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.65% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
1.83% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.45% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
2.97% , APA , APACHE
0.95% , IWM , SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.91% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2.06% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
1.59% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.55% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.28% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
1.74% , BA , BOEING
2.01% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
0.47% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.22% , NKE , NIKE STK B
1.88% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.08% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-8.25% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.36% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-2.98% , KBH , KB HOME
-4.25% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-1.77% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-2.32% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-1.08% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-1.95% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-0.59% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-3.26% , GCI , GANNETT
-2.38% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-1.24% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.99% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-1.05% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.49% , MDP , MEREDITH
-1.60% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.57% , ZION , ZIONS
-2.35% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.89% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.19% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.31% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.62% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-2.59% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.52% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-1.33% , MAS , MASCO
-1.86% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-0.72% , TLAB , TELLABS
-1.60% , CMA , COMERICA
-1.84% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-2.50% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-0.45% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.41% , CI , CIGNA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.53% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.44% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.21% , Australia Index, EWA
2.20% , Sweden Index, EWD
2.13% , Russia MV, RSX
2.01% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.93% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.88% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.83% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.79% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.73% , Italy Index, EWI
1.69% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.66% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.63% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.59% , India PS, PIN
1.59% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.59% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.55% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.52% , Spain Index, EWP
1.49% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.47% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.24% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.22% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.21% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.18% , Austria Index, EWO
1.16% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.12% , Energy Global, IXC
1.12% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.10% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.08% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.02% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.01% , Canada Index, EWC
1.00% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.00% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.00% , France Index, EWQ
1.00% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.99% , Germany Index, EWG
0.98% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.97% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.96% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.95% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.94% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.92% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.92% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.91% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.91% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.89% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.87% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.86% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.85% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.85% , Global 100, IOO
0.83% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.82% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.80% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.80% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.76% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.73% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.72% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.70% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.69% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.65% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.63% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.57% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.55% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.54% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.53% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.53% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.53% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.52% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.51% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.51% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.50% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.50% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.49% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.48% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.48% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.48% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.47% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.47% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.47% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.47% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.45% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.43% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.41% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.41% , Dividend International, PID
0.41% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.40% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.39% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.38% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.37% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.36% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.36% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.36% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.36% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.35% , Water Resources, PHO
0.29% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.29% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.25% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.24% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.23% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.21% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.21% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.18% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.14% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.14% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.10% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.08% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.05% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.02% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.05% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.06% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.10% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.10% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.13% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.14% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.17% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.18% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.21% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.23% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.27% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.33% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.34% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.34% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.42% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.45% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.57% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.58% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.59% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.60% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.65% , Networking, IGN
-0.87% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.89% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.92% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.10% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.19% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.20% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.24% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-8.25% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, intraday high of 5/28/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1622.72, intraday low of 6/3/13
1622.70, intraday low of 5/8/2013
1601.54, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1490.99, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
