Wednesday, November 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker U.S. stock index futures prices and lower crude oil prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
With the U.S. elections over, investor/trader focus is back to the U.S. economy, which is in bad shape. That likely means choppy trading in the stock indexes, with limited upside potential–even though market bottoms may be in place. Also, the U.S. dollar is now looking a bit “toppy.”–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today, on a corrective pullback after recent big gains. Bulls still have some near-term upside technical momentum on their side.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 981.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of 964.10. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,008.00 and then at 1,025.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 997.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 991.30
1st Support:——– 976.05
2nd Support:——– 948.90
1st Resistance:— 1,180.45
2nd Resistance:— 1,033.70
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,355.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of 1,340.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,387.75 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,384.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,368.70
1st Support:—— 1,352.35
2nd Support:—— 1,324.20
1st Resistance:— 1,396.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,413.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 9,415 and then more stops just below support at 9,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,600 and then just above resistance at 9,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,748
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 9,541
1st Support:—— 9,461
2nd Support:—— 9,336
1st Resistance:— 9,666
2nd Resistance:— 9,746
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady early today. Tuesday’s big gains have given the bulls some fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 even and then at 114 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 1/32 and then at 116 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 9/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 114 30/32
1st Support:—– 113 30/32 2nd Support:—– 112 1/32
1st Resistance:– 116 27/32
2nd Resistance:– 117 27/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 115.14.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.23.0 and then at 114.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 114 23/32
1st Support:—– 114 even 2nd Support:—– 112 21/32
1st Resistance:– 116 2/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 25/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. No serious chart damage has occurred recently, but the bulls have faded. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.14 and then at 86.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.18 and then at 85.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.59. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2771 and then just below support at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Tuesday’s high of 1.3029 and then at 1.3100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2818. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $770.00 and then at $778.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $750.80 and then at $740.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $730.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then just above resistance at this week’s high of 71.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.06 and then more sell stops just below support at $66.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture today, as crude oil prices are lower and the U.S. dollar is firmer. The bulls are working on market bottoms in corn and soybeans, but more work needs to be done to better confirm any market bottom being in place.
