* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, European stocks were weaker along with the Euro currency, as Spanish and Italian bond yields crept higher. There is political scandal in Spain and banking troubles in Italy that are grabbing the European financial news headlines to start the new trading week. However, the Standard & Poors ratings agency said Monday that European Union periphery countries that are weaker have been making progress to climb back to economic health. However, S&P said Greece is still in big trouble. Later this week China will issue a fresh batch of economic data, including inflation and trade balance reports. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISM New York report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the employment trends index.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading today and are hovering near Friday’s five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s fresh for-the-move high of 1,510.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 1,491.20 and then at 1,475.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s high of 2,764.00 and then at the January high of 2,768.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 2,730.50 and then at last week’s low of 2,716.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today after hitting a five-year high on Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,850 and then at 13,800. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,908 and then at Friday’s high of 13,960. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 142 24/32 and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 142 5/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and hit a fresh 4.5-month low overnight. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.04.0 and then at 131.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.23.0 and then at 130.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is higher early today on short covering in a bear market. Greenback bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.75 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.17 and then at last week’s low of 78.91. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today on some profit taking after prices hit a 4.5-month high last week. Bulls still have some upside momentum as a two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $97.50 and then at $98.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $96.00 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Markets were firmer overnight. Dry weather in Argentina is still a bullish factor for corn and soybeans. Traders will closely scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Grain traders are also awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.
