Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/5/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 7-month low on 6/5/13.

The S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY) absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/5/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/5/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA.

Materials (XLB) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

U.S. stocks opened lower on Wednesday and continued to decline most of the day to close near the lows of the day. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,608.90) finished down 1.38% and Nasdaq fell 1.27%. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE fell again–its 4th consecutive trading day down. NYSE Volume rose 2% to confirm the weak short-term trend.

The S&P 500 is down 3.6% since 5/21/13, based on closing prices, making this the largest down wave since last September-November. It is also the longest in time, lasting 10 trading days, so far. The magnitude and duration of this price decline might be telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.

Despite months of technical divergences and a clear loss of upside momentum in recent weeks, the great majority of investors remain bullishly complacent. The Bullish Majority assumes (hopes) that the stock market will again find its old bullish resilience, that bullish momentum will again “feed on itself”, and the “Buy-the-Dip” mentality won’t quit until the Fed quits its “highly accommodative monetary policy”.

Following a persistent trend, investors typically overestimate the market’s ability to continue in that same trend direction, while underestimating risks of trend reversal and the natural tendency of all markets to move both up and down, going from overbought to oversold, just as they always have.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 4/23/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. Longer term, although the XLF/SPY has moderately outperformed since the bottom on 3/6/09, it has substantially underperformed over the past 9 years, since 3/23/04, and the secular trend may be bearish still. Absolute price has remained systematically bullish the great majority of the time since 6/29/12: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support: 19.11, 18.48, 17.75, 17.16, 16.95, 16.09, 15.98, 15.43, 15.06, 14.97, 14.84, 14.34, 14.09, 13.97, 13.30, 13.12, 12.86, 12.21, 11.73, 10.95, 10.83, 9.41, and 5.88. Resistance: 20.35, 20.70, 24.50, and 28.17.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 2/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. XLY/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 12/16/11. Absolute price turned systematically bullish on 11/23/12 when price crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA since 12/16/11. Support: 54.26, 52.32, 51.95, 51.46, 49.40, 48.07, 44.34, 43.01, 42.44, 41.44, 41.21, 40.83, 39.97, 39.23, 38.75, 36.33, 33.07, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance: 58.09.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/29/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). XLV/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/5/12. Absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/5/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 46.76, 46.02, 44.22, 42.71, 41.60, 40.38, 39.24, 38.48, 38.33, 37.78, 37.18, 36.88, 36.77, 36.14, 35.38, 35.15, 34.71, 34.42, 31.68, 30.11, 29.64, 28.00, and 27.49. Resistance: 50.40.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 4/25/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Support: 40.90, 40.02, 39.97, 38.51, 37.04, 36.71, 36.35, 35.19, 35.00, 34.32, 33.84, 33.08, 32.22, 31.08, and 27.67. Resistance: 44.70.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 5/6/13 when it crossed below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 5/31/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support 39.50, 38.20, 37.67, 37.36, 36.79, 35.41, 35.29, 33.56, 33.05, 32.70, 32.46, 31.84, 31.30, 30.19, 28.70, 28.07, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance: 42.20.

Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) whipsawed up and down through its 50-day SMA since 5/20/13, thereby going from systematically bearish to neutral and back to bearish repeatedly. XLE absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/2/13 when it whipsawed back above the 50-day SMA. Price remains above the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Support: 79.57, 76.96, 73.51, 69.57, 69.43, 67.77, 66.16, 64.64, 64.54, 61.11, 53.71, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance: 83.95 and 91.42.

Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) whipsawed up and down through its 50-day SMA since 5/2/13, thereby going from systematically bearish to neutral repeatedly. Longer term, XLK/SPY has been systematically bearish the great majority of the time since 11/6/2012. XLK absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 4/25/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Price remains above the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Support: 31.18, 30.67, 29.10, 28.25, 27.21, 27.04, 26.56, 25.89, 25.66, 25.27, 24.01, 22.60, 22.47, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance: 32.31, 34.85, 36.40, and 39.07.

Materials (XLB) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). XLB absolute price turned systematically bullish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Price remains above the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Support: 38.67, 36.70, 36.20, 35.44, 34.99, 34.44, 34.10, 33.58, 32.59, 31.41, 30.72, 27.77, 23.85, and 17.83. Resistance: 41.61, 43.04, 45.21, and 46.54.

Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/29/13, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. XLU/SPY turned systematically bearish on 5/6/13, when it crossed below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/22/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support: 36.78, 35.09, 34.22, 33.84, 33.18, 31.94, 29.45, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance: 40.55, 41.44, 41.98, and 44.66.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.73% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.40% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.02% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
2.65% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.20% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.94% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.83% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.32% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.40% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.69% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
0.55% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.46% , APA , APACHE
0.89% , ED , CON ED
2.49% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.49% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
0.69% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.09% , AEE , AMEREN
1.25% , WAG , WALGREEN
0.49% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.22% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.21% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-6.32% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-3.03% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.46% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.89% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.66% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-2.90% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.79% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-1.79% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-1.87% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-4.68% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.97% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.97% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-2.20% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-3.57% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-3.14% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-2.62% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.37% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
-3.31% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-4.20% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-3.08% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-2.47% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-1.45% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-3.73% , GLW , CORNING
-2.07% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
-1.96% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.60% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-2.12% , DD , DU PONT
-2.09% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-3.11% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-2.49% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-3.61% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.83% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.40% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.38% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.49% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.22% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.21% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.18% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.16% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.12% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.05% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.06% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.15% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.17% , Networking, IGN
-0.46% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.55% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.56% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.60% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.66% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.72% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.74% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.77% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.82% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.83% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.85% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.87% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.87% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.88% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.88% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.95% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.98% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.99% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.00% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.02% , India PS, PIN
-1.03% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.03% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.03% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.04% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.07% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.10% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.11% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.12% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.14% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.14% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.14% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.14% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.17% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.19% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.21% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.22% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.24% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.27% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.27% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.28% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.28% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.29% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.29% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.30% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.32% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.33% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.33% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.34% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.35% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-1.35% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.35% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.35% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.36% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.36% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.37% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.37% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.38% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.38% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.38% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.39% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.39% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.39% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.40% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.40% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.41% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.41% , Dividend International, PID
-1.41% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.41% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.42% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.42% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.43% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.44% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.44% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.44% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.45% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.45% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.46% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.46% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.47% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.48% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.51% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.51% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.51% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.53% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.54% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.54% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.54% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.57% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.61% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.63% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.65% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.66% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.67% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.67% , France Index, EWQ
-1.70% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.79% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.79% , Global 100, IOO
-1.82% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.83% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.83% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.87% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.92% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.92% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.93% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.94% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.97% , Singapore Index, EWS
-2.04% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.06% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.07% , Water Resources, PHO
-2.11% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.15% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.23% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.23% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.23% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.23% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-2.45% , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.45% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.48% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.62% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.84% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.90% , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.95% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.03% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-3.29% , Australia Index, EWA
-3.34% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-3.61% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-3.81% , Japan Index, EWJ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, intraday high of 5/28/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1604.17, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1493.15, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009