Tuesday, November 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices and higher U.S. Treasury prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are presently trading in a more pronounced inverse relationship with the U.S. stock indexes. On days when the stock market is down, Treasury prices are usually up, and visa versa. The once-strong inverse trading relationship between the value of the U.S. dollar and crude oil has dissipated, at least for now.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower again in early morning trading today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes as prices hover near their recent contract lows.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 829.10 and then at the contract low of 817.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 852.70 and then at 865.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 872.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 860.10
1st Support:——– 838.45
2nd Support:——– 825.90
1st Resistance:—– 872.65
2nd Resistance:—– 894.30
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,129.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the contract low of 1,108.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,158.00 and then at Monday’s high of 1,190.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,189.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,162.85
1st Support:—— 1,135.70
2nd Support:—— 1,112.85
1st Resistance:— 1,185.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,212.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,100 and then more stops just below support at 8,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then just above resistance at 8,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,390
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,350
1st Support:—— 8,149
2nd Support:—— 8,040
1st Resistance:— 8,459
2nd Resistance:— 8,660
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer early today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 1/32 and then at 118 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday’s high of 119 20/32 and then at 119 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 18/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 119 even
1st Support:—– 118 12/32 2nd Support:—– 117 21/32
1st Resistance:– 119 23/32
2nd Resistance:– 120 11/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.30.5 and then at 118.02.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.18.0 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 117 12/32
1st Support:—– 117 3/32 2nd Support:—– 116 20/32
1st Resistance:– 117 27/32
2nd Resistance:– 118 4/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.66 and then at 88.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 87.00 and then at Monday’s low of 86.89. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2556 and then just below support at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2651 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $740.70 and then at Monday’s high of $747.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $731.00 and then at Monday’s low of $729.60. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $734.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are steady to weaker early today. Prices dipped to a fresh 22-month low overnight. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $55.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $55.86. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $54.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $52.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $58.46. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are bearish early today–crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is firmer. U.S. stock indexes are also weaker. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains, as the path of least resistance for the grains remains sideways at best.
