* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
The situation in Ukraine is still a worry among traders and investors and has moved closer to the front burner of the market place. Russian president Putin has spurned a U.S. proposal to defuse the crisis, reports said. Last weekend Putin said he would back the Crimean region seceding from Ukraine. U.S. and German officials have rebuked Putin, and reports said the European Union is set to discuss this week sanctions against Russia. A vote on the Crimean secession is scheduled for March 16, and that could be the next flashpoint in the region. The Russian occupation of Crimea is a bullish factor for the safe-haven gold market.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is again on the light side and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the NFIB small business optimism index, and wholesale trade inventories.
Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation remains a geopolitical risk in the market place.)
(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.–Jim Wyckoff
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading today and hovering not far below last week’s record high. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 1,891.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,866.00 and then at 1,856.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering not far below last week’s 13.5-year high. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,725.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,740.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,700.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,684.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
Dow futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,450 and then at last week’s high of 16,490. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of 16,390 and then at Monday’s low of 16,330. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Prices Monday spiked to a seven-week low. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 131 15/32 and then at 132 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131 even and then at last week’s low of 130 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bears still have downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 123.24.0 and then at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 123.10.5 and then at 123.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer early on more short covering in a bear market after hitting a contract low last Friday. Prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears are still in technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.060 and then at 80.200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.870 and then at Monday’s low of 79.780. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today. The bulls have faded recently to suggest a market top is in place. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $102.00 and then at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $100.85 and then at last week’s low of $100.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Markets were mixed but mostly weaker overnight. Monday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report was not overtly bearish for the grains, but it was not bullish, either, which has prompted some profit taking and downside technical corrections following recent good gains. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Focus is turning to the upcoming U.S. planting season and any potential planting delays due to cold weather in the central U.S.
