Back in 1980-1984 when I was in High School, I had a professor named Dr. Ben Sauers. He had his PhD in economics. Hence the Dr. In any event, I remember 2 things about him 1) he introduced me to reading the WSJ, and he liked to talk about M1 and M2. At the time that was the number the whole economic world focused on.
Money Supply. Then Paul Volker used the fed to raise rates through the roof, and finally squelch inflation.

Today, the number we all focus on is coming out on Friday of this week. Unemployment. The first Friday of every month. Like groundhog day, only every month. We can look forward to Cnbc, Fox, etc covering it like they used to cover moon shots.

I think you’ll see choppy trade to the high side as shorts even up before the number. It seems to me that the markets are discounting the Greece Problem. For now.
It seems ironic that 5 months ago, France, Russia and some more of our buddies met in not so secret talks with some OPEC nations to begin the process of replacing the dollar w/ another currency of choice to settle payments for oil.

How ironic that these economic “leaders” seemed to signal the bottom of the us dollar break. Indeed, these guys are starting to look like a classic fade. The moment they started talking about replacing the dollar we should have all run out and bought calls to take advantage of their emotional declaration.

For this week, I remain neutral to cautiously bullish the US Indexes. I still think the level of negativity is a positive thing, as the market rallies against the wall of worry.
We’ve had our 50 percent pullback from our March 09 lows. Perhaps we will just chopp sideways through the next 18 months. I do however, believe that at some point we will get that 11000 print in the Dow. First time up, sell it with both hands, risking 100 to 200 points.

As for the grains, its looking like nothing more than a short covering rally. I think we will do some back filling to sideways trade through March 10, the next USDA number. The USDA number on the 31st could be a surprise, with planting intentions.

I would look to buy any sharp dip between now and may 5th. A seasonal trade to look towards getting long on a good dip. We are already hearing noises about delayed planting… lol There are still 500MM bushel of corn in the field from last harvest. And of course the ground will be muddy in the Spring. We’ve got record snow pack on top.

Bottom line we will have our bull story to ride up. The key is how long and how strong will the bull ride be? If we get the perfect storm of funds chasing the crops, a fundamental scare on the demand side, along with the holy grail of grain traders, THE ALMIGHTY DROUGHT….. Then any thing is possible.

Good trading is 90 percent money management. Execution, Discipline and Loving your losers combine to set the stage for long term success. Anything else is just self deception.

Good Trading