Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) reported first quarter of fiscal 2012 adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.64 as well as the year-ago earnings of $1.29. Better-than-expected earnings came on the back of increased prices and more cargo hauling despite weaker coal volumes.

Revenue climbed 16% year over year to a record $5,112 million in the first quarter, and breezed past the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,986 million on volume growth. Volumes (carloads) registered a growth of 1% year over year in the reported quarter.

The year-over-year growth was largely driven by Automotive (up 15%), Industrial Products (up 10%), Chemicals (up 8%) and Intermodal (up 1%), largely offset by weak Energy (down 8%) and Agriculture (down 2%) volumes. Average revenue per car increased 12% year over year.

Operating income leaped 33% year over year to $1,510 million in the first quarter.

Operating expenses increased 7% year over year to $3,602. Higher other expenses (up 15%) and fuel expenses (up 12%) were responsible for the increase.

Operating ratio (defined as operating expenses as a percentage of revenue) improved 420 bps year over year to 70.5% in the reported quarter on the back of increased fuel cost recoveries, pricing gains, volume growth and improved operating efficiency.

Liquidity

Union Pacific exited first quarter 2012 with cash and cash equivalents of $995 billion, up from $1,248 million in the same quarter a year ago. Long-term debt inched down to $8.8 billion from $8.9 billion in December 31, 2011. Adjusted debt-to-capitalization ratio decreased to 40.1% from 40.7% at year-end 2011.

The company generated free cash flow of $285 million in the first quarter of 2012 compared with $451 million in the first quarter of 2011 and invested $804 million, up 33.6% year over year. Further, the company repurchased $3.9 million shares in the reported quarter.

Our Analysis

Union Pacific continues to deliver strong results across most of its business groups including automotive, chemicals, and industrial products driven by the ongoing productive and cost-control measures.

However, the near-term growth for Union Pacific is expected to be tempered by lower Southern Powder River Basin (SPRB) coal, agriculture and international Intermodal volumes that will likely weigh on top-line growth going forward.

The company expects the loss of two legacy contracts last year, soft demand for some utilities due to somewhat milder-than-average winter and higher stockpiles to restrict the growth at SPRB over the next several quarters. International intermodal volume will remain under pressure due to weak container imports and contract losses while agriculture volumes will be fragile due to weak food and beverages, feed grains and export grains.

Further, stiff competition from major rivals like Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC), CSX Corporation (CSX) and Kansas CitySouthern (KSU), unionized workforce, steeply rising fuel prices, increased railroad regulation as well as high barriers to entry might limit the potential upside for the stock.

We have a Zacks Rank of #3 (short-term Hold recommendation) on Union Pacific. We also reiterate our long-term Neutral rating on the stock.

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