Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 10-month highs and remains bullish. Absolute price also remains bullish.

Silver broke out above the price ranges of the previous 3 trading days and broke out above a 7-day down trend line, suggesting reversal of the previous minor price pullback for the short term.

Gold and Copper moved above the previous day’s narrow ranges, suggesting that the pressure might be off for the short term.

The U.S. dollar price fell below the previous day’s low and its steep 12-day uptrend line, suggesting that its short-term oversold bounce may have ended.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,196.69) rose 18.10 points or 1.54% on Thursday. SPX broke out above a 7-day down trend line and broke out above the ranges of the previous 2 trading days. Short-term price momentum oscillators turned up sharply. Volume rose to confirm the price upturn. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.34% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
6.06% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
2.25% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.36% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
5.20% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.80% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
1.86% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
1.57% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
1.36% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
2.19% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
4.36% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
1.54% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
1.72% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.49% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
4.52% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
4.74% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
2.96% , EL , Estee Lauder
5.80% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
2.27% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
5.18% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
4.53% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
1.63% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
1.48% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.95% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.88% , FLR , FLUOR
1.43% , SWH , Software H, SWH
1.74% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
3.63% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
2.18% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
6.14% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
1.59% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.36% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.08% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
1.50% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
1.66% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
2.11% , KO , COCA COLA
4.79% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
3.45% , PCAR , PACCAR
2.75% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
2.67% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.14% , HUM , HUMANA
-1.46% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-2.81% , NE , NOBLE
-3.66% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-2.21% , MTB , M&T BANK
-3.78% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.56% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-3.36% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.35% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-2.50% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-3.02% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.65% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-4.15% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-2.98% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-2.70% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.74% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-0.24% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.81% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-1.30% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-2.99% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.52% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-0.85% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-1.51% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.13% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-3.20% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.58% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.55% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
-0.20% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-0.38% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-0.53% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-0.66% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.63% , AET , AETNA
-0.13% , CR , CRANE
-0.42% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-0.10% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-0.31% , INTC , INTEL
-0.55% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-1.10% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.26% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.23% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/17/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.

Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 10-month highs on 11/18/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10 and remains bullish. Support 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 63.89, 69.95 and 78.10.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below 10-week lows on 11/11/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.53, 35.00, and 36.16.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 4-week lows on 11/16/10 and turned neutral. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.28 and 25.69.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 2-week lows on 11/16/10 and turned neutral. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 36.71, 37.56, and 39.00.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.31, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.27, 29.29 and 30.29.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.40, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 31.73, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/8/10. Absolute price of XLU peaked on 10/20/10 and appears neutral. Support 30.90, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) remains bearish, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price of XLF rose above 5-month highs on 11/5/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.62, 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 15.68, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) emerged above its previous 3-day range and is approaching a repeat bullish signal.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its previous 8-day range and is approaching a repeat bullish signal.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/2/10 and remains bullish for the long term. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/11/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price consolidated losses with an Inside Day. Oil fell below the lows of the previous 3 weeks on 11/17/10, again confirming a minor price pullback for the short term. Longer term, Oil rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend. Support 79.84, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 88.63, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price moved above the previous day’s narrow range on 11/18/10, suggesting that the pressure is off for the short term. Longer term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 11/9/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Support 1329.0, 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1424.3.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs on 11/12/10 and remains bullish.

Silver nearest futures contract price broke out above the price ranges of the previous 3 trading days and broke out above a 7-day down trend line on 11/18/10, suggesting reversal of the previous minor price pullback for the short term. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10, confirming a bullish major trend.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/18/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price moved above the previous day’s narrow range on 11/18/10, suggesting that the pressure is off for the short term. A further oversold bounce seems probable. Longer term, Copper rose above previous 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell again on 11/18/10. The bond fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 11/15/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the intermediate-term trend. Support 125.15, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.27, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 6-month highs on 11/15/10 and appears to be heading toward a “Golden Cross” (when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA). Absolute price is bullish already.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) sagged lower since 10/26/10, which implies that fixed-income investors actually have been choosing less inflation protection, contrary to those voices warning of inflation recently.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below the previous day’s low and its steep 12-day uptrend line on 11/18/10, suggesting that its short-term oversold bounce may have ended. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 79.585, 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 56.2% Bulls versus 20.2% Bears as of 11/17/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.78, which is between one and two standard deviations above the long-term mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.

VIX Fear Index fell to 18.75 on 11/18/10 from 23.07 on 11/16/10. A relatively low and falling VIX indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,196.69) rose 18.10 points or 1.54% on Thursday. SPX gapped higher, added to opening gains into the lunch hour, drifted slightly lower in the afternoon, but managed to hold onto the great bulk of its early gains. SPX broke out above a 7-day down trend line and broke out above the ranges of the previous 2 trading days. Short-term price momentum oscillators turned up sharply. Volume rose to confirm the price upturn. The “possible upside reversal for the short term” appears to have begun. SPX recently fell 3.87% over 7 trading days, which qualifies as a typical moderate price pullback. There have been 6 price down waves of 3.87% or greater over the past year alone. Overbought/oversold oscillators, such as RSI(14), fully corrected their overbought condition by dropping down to the neutral zone. Minor price pullbacks ought to remain limited in this phase of the stock market. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

5.40% Silver Trust iS, SLV
3.65% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
3.34% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
3.11% Sweden Index, EWD
2.99% Germany Index, EWG
2.96% South Korea Index, EWY
2.94% Russia MV, RSX
2.82% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.75% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.71% Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.67% France Index, EWQ
2.66% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.55% Belgium Index, EWK
2.54% Japan Index, EWJ
2.52% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.51% EAFE Index, EFA
2.50% Austria Index, EWO
2.44% European VIPERs, VGK
2.43% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.41% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.39% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.38% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.38% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.37% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
2.36% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
2.36% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.36% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.30% United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.29% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.28% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.25% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.22% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.21% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.21% Italy Index, EWI
2.20% Energy SPDR, XLE
2.19% Spain Index, EWP
2.18% Mexico Index, EWW
2.16% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.15% Microcap Russell, IWC
2.15% India PS, PIN
2.14% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.13% China 25 iS, FXI
2.13% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
2.12% Singapore Index, EWS
2.12% Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.11% Energy DJ, IYE
2.06% Australia Index, EWA
2.05% Malaysia Index, EWM
2.04% Networking, IGN
2.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.03% Energy Global, IXC
1.98% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.95% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.95% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.94% Global 100, IOO
1.89% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.88% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.87% Dividend International, PID
1.82% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.81% Canada Index, EWC
1.81% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.79% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.78% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.78% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.78% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.74% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.72% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.70% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.70% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.69% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.68% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.68% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.66% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.66% Water Resources, PHO
1.65% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.64% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.63% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.63% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.61% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.59% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.58% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.55% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.55% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.54% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.53% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.48% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.48% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.48% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.47% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.46% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.44% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.43% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.41% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.41% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.41% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.40% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.38% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.37% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.37% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.36% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.34% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.34% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.34% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.33% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.31% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.29% South Africa Index, EZA
1.29% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.29% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.29% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.28% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.28% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.28% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.27% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
1.26% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.18% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.13% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
1.06% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.01% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.92% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.90% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.87% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.86% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.78% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.70% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.63% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.60% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.48% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.44% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.41% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.37% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.36% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.17% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.07% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.24% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.32% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB