Yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress Report verifies that the gap between last year’s progress has narrowed over the last week as a result of a favorable weather pattern in the Midwest.  As of 29 May, the 18 major growing states are at 86% complete, vs. 97% last year and the 5 year average of 95% (see first table below).  The  second table highlights the % emerged as of the same date, and we can see that the crop is getting off to a late start.  At this stage, the later start to the 2011 corn crop is priced in, but there may be additional price risk to the upside if certain milestones in the crop cycle delayed.  Crop tours will assess the development pace. 

 

 

 

The map below shows the Weather Trends Y/Y precipitation forecast for July, with the corn belt highlighted.  While June will help the crop get off to a good start, we are noting the potential for some weather risk due to drier conditions in the western corn belt.