After natgas touched the $4.50 range, it has retreated to the $4 mark (see Finviz natural gas chart below); notable as we are at the official start of winter.  While there has been recent cold weather in the central and eastern US, a supply glut has kept this period of higher demand from causing a significant spike in prices.  This is not the same market as the one we were in just a few years ago, where this type of pattern would have built a  weather premium into natgas and oil futures. 

Looking ahead, while the cold weather in Europe is supporting activity in London markets, the domestic picture looks less threatening.  The NAO and AO are both trending towards positive phase, and the extended range Weather Trends outlook is anticipating a pattern that should produce less heating demand in January as compared to last year (see table).  There will still be cold (it is winter) but high stockpiles coupled with lower y/y demand will limit upside risk.