The Greek debt crisis will have another installment this weekend, as the government urges the citizens to vote No to the eurozone austerity measures. But the US markets seem to have decided that it really doesn’t matter all that much.
The S&P500 mini-futures (ESU5) bounced up nicely after the Greek prime minister offered a fig-leaf to the creditors (we think it was less an olive branch than a red herring, designed to shift blame for the coming debacle to the creditors). The minis closed at 2071.50, up 17 points from the previous close, and near the high of the day.
The ES was seriously oversold, and a bounce of some kind was no surprise, regardless of the continuing drama in Europe.
Today
Remember that today is the end of the trading week, and a lot of the funny stuff that normally occurs on Friday will be taking place today. We have the employment numbers first thing in the morning, before the market opens, and they may be good for a further bounce. ES still has an oversold condition, so one more day for the bounce is very possible.
However no one will want to carry any large positions into the July 4 holiday weekend, with the Greek referendum looming, so there will be an end-of-day scramble to get flat.
The 2057 level will be an important support line today. A break below it would trigger some momentum selling on the downside. But as long as Es stays above 2064, the odds will favor the upside.
2083-85 will become first major resistance for the bulls on the way to the 2095.50 unfilled gap. But the price shouldn’t fill the 2095.50 gap. If ES does close above 2095.50, it will change the short-term direction from down to upside again.
Major support levels for Thursday: 2043-30, 2018-21, 2006-03, 1980-75;
major resistance levels: 2085-86, 2093.75-95.50, 2105-06, 2112.50-14.50,
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Chart: S&P500 mini-futures (ESU5), July 1, 2015
