Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price may be trying to form a base after hitting an “oversold” low at 115.51 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low on 2/13/13. Various technical oscillators show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bullish on 2/14/13, when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. There have been 6 whipsaw signals since 2009, however, and the probability of another whipsaw seems fairly significant. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below 7-months lows on 2/14/13.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below 6-months lows on 2/14/13. Price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA appears to be heading toward a bearish “Dead Cross” below the 200-day SMA in days ahead. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below 5-weeks lows on 2/14/13. Price appears to have been in a neutral trading range since hitting 28.61 on 1/4/13, but now that range may be in danger of breaking to the downside. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Stocks gapped lower at the open but quickly recovered to close mixed and little changed on Thursday. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,521.38) finished up 0.07%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.06%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 0.31%.
Bullish momentum appears to be stalling out. Although the S&P 500 rose modestly so far in February, popular daily price momentum oscillators have moved lower and are showing bearish momentum divergences. For example, RSI(14) is now 67.82, down from 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9) also peaked on 1/29/13 and fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 2/14/13. MACD crossed below its signal line on 2/4/13 and remains below it. Momentum is a leading indicator of price.
“BofA’s proprietary measure of investor sentiment is clocking in at extreme levels. According to the firm’s Bull & Bear Index, which tracks sentiment using indicators like hedge fund market exposure, fund flows, long-only investor positioning and so forth, investors are more bullish than they were in 99% of periods since 2002.”–Joe Weisenthal, Business Insider
The Art of Contrary Thinking called for questioning strong bullish sentiment. Investor sentiment data indicated high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Sentiment extremes are a leading indicator of price.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 1/18/13, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed above their closing price highs of the previous 5 years.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish again on 1/3/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price peaked on 2/1/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 1/23/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Price peaked on 1/2/13 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price peaked on 2/1/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 12/17/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 1/8/13, thereby turning systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 12/14/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1524.69, high of 2/13/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1495.02, low of 2/4/2013
1489.46, low of 1/24/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1465.25, 50-day SMA
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1405.55, 200-day SMA
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price may be trying to form a base after hitting an “oversold” low at 115.51 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low on 2/13/13. Various technical oscillators show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences. TLT turned systematically bearish on 1/25/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Support 115.51, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 117.85, 120.70, 123.71, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price may be trying to form a base after hitting an “oversold” low at 105.56 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low on 2/13/13. Various technical oscillators show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences. Support 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 106.45, 107.35, 108.07, 108.15, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 1/14/13, thereby turning systematically bullish. Price peaked on 1/25/13, turned systematically neutral on 2/1/13, and fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 2/7/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has fallen close to its 50-day SMA–a cross below would turn it systematically neutral. Absolute price has been in a medium-term downtrend since peaking at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and already is systematically neutral.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below 7-months lows on 2/14/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bullish on 2/14/13, when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. There have been 6 whipsaw signals since 2009, however, and the probability of another whipsaw seems fairly significant. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 34.38, 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below 6-months lows on 2/14/13. Price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA appears to be heading toward a bearish “Dead Cross” below the 200-day SMA in days ahead. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below 5-weeks lows on 2/14/13. Price appears to have been in a neutral trading range since hitting 28.61 on 1/4/13, but now that range may be in danger of breaking to the downside. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) appears to be in a neutral trading range, whipsawing around its 50-day and 200-day SMAs since 10/19/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
19.87% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
7.56% , MDP , MEREDITH
6.07% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
2.16% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.59% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
3.09% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
3.73% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
1.41% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
3.19% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
4.43% , NBR , NABORS
2.45% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
3.93% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
2.02% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
2.03% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
2.04% , WPO , Washington Post
3.32% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.96% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
2.09% , AA , ALCOA
1.36% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
1.32% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
1.69% , XLNX , XILINX
0.47% , MKC , MCCORMICK
1.23% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
1.93% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
1.13% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.63% , SWY , SAFEWAY
0.67% , CTAS , CINTAS
0.49% , K , KELLOGG
0.87% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
2.52% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.69% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
0.41% , CR , CRANE
1.50% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-22.60% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-9.70% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-3.06% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-1.46% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.27% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-4.74% , APA , APACHE
-1.54% , RAI , Reynolds American
-2.92% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.44% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.16% , MET , METLIFE
-1.77% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-1.93% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-1.28% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-1.68% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.50% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-1.46% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.94% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-1.04% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.50% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.81% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.45% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-1.11% , INTU , INTUIT
-1.21% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.70% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-1.18% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.36% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-1.61% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.42% , PCG , PG&E
-0.77% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.91% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-0.77% , KR , KROGER
-0.52% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-1.51% , GPS , GAP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.16% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.02% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.86% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.03% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.96% South Africa Index, EZA
0.91% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.86% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.83% Australia Index, EWA
0.79% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.77% Belgium Index, EWK
0.77% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.73% South Korea Index, EWY
0.72% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.71% Energy DJ, IYE
0.70% Networking, IGN
0.66% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.66% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.61% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.56% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.55% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.45% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.43% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.42% China 25 iS, FXI
0.37% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.36% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.33% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.33% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.31% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.31% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.31% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.31% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.30% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.30% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.28% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.27% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.26% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.25% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.25% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.24% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.24% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.23% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.23% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.23% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.22% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.22% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.21% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.21% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.21% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.20% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.20% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.20% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.18% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.17% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.17% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.15% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.13% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.13% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.11% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.11% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.09% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.09% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.08% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.08% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.07% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.06% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.06% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.04% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.00% Dividend International, PID
-0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.03% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.04% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.06% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.07% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.07% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.07% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.09% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.14% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.14% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.16% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.16% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.17% Energy Global, IXC
-0.20% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.20% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.20% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.20% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.21% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.21% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.23% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.24% Canada Index, EWC
-0.26% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.29% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.33% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.35% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.35% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.35% Water Resources, PHO
-0.36% Global 100, IOO
-0.38% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.39% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.42% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.42% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.43% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.44% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.44% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.46% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.46% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.46% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.47% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.47% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.50% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.54% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.54% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.57% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.60% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.60% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.65% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.70% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.73% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.74% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.81% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.83% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.97% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.00% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.04% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.08% France Index, EWQ
-1.14% Russia MV, RSX
-1.27% India PS, PIN
-1.34% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.38% Spain Index, EWP
-1.46% Austria Index, EWO
-1.50% Germany Index, EWG
-1.63% Italy Index, EWI
-2.46% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
