ALARON US TREASURY FUTURES REPORT 04/28/09
ECONOMIC DATA 04/29/09: all times EST
- 8:30 AM US GDP 1ST Q 2009 (-5.0%)
- 9:00 AM US 30 YEAR BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
- 10:30 AM EIA INVENTORY REPORT
- 11:00 AM US 3 YEAR, 10 YEAR NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
- 1:00 PM US 7 YEAR NOTE AUCTION
- 2:15 PM FOMC MEETING ANNOUNCEMENT
SUMMARY OF DATA 04/28/09
US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (39.4 vs. 30.0) US 5 YEAR NOTE AUCTION ($35.0 B) BID TO COVER 2.22, YIELD 1.94%
US TREASURIES BREAK DOWN AS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES, US 5 YEAR AUCTION RESULTS IN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED YIELD.
US Treasuries posted a volatile session on Tuesday. Early gains were based on evolving swine flu concerns and expectations that BOA (Bank of America) and Citigroup will need to raise additional capital. These gains dissolved after better than expected readings on US Consumer Confidence and a higher yield result from the US 5 year auction drove Treasuries through key support levels (124.020 in 30 years), triggering technical stops that drove the markets to close near their lows of the session. Traders broke out of longer yielding debt as supply concerns once again came to the forefront.
Tuesday’s auction of $35 billion of US 5 year notes mirrored recent results-respectable bid to cover ratios (2.21) are achieved at the cost of higher yields (1.945%). Supply concerns and the quality of the investment return on Treasuries continue to build up negative sentiment on the longer end of the yield curve. In addition, speculation arose that the number of auction could be increased to 12 auctions per year. Currently there are 8 auctions (no more summers off?) The result, Treasuries closed at their lowest levels since the 3rd week of March. In the end, supply, demand and market sentiment overcomes nearly every political and fiscal strategy to control the markets in the long term.
Technically, June 30 year futures broke through a key support level at 124.020. There are few levels of support between this level and 122.080. Upside on the market should be tied to filling in a gap up to 124.130.
|
US DEBT FUTURES |
OPEN |
HIGH |
LOW |
CLOSE |
CHANGE |
|
US M9 (US 30 YRS) |
125.010 |
125.230 |
123.145 |
123.260 |
-1.07/32nds |
|
TY M9 (US 10 YRS) |
122.090 |
122.250 |
121.170 |
121.215 |
-20.0/32nds |
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
