Commodity trading school
COMMODITY TRADING SCHOOL US TREASURY FUTURES REPORT 06/30/09
SUMMARY OF DATA 07/01/09
- 8:15 AM ADP EMPLOY REPORT
- 10:00 AM ISM MFG IDX (45.0), US CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (-0.5%), PENDING HOME SALES
- 10:35 AM EIA INVENTORY REPORT (CRUDE -1.6M, RBOB +2M)
06/30/09 SUMMARY OF DATA
9:45 am CHICAGO PMI (39.9 VS.40.0) 10:00 AM US CONSUMER CONF (49.3 vs. 57.0)
US TREASURIES END SESSION LOWER AS BID FROM PORTFOLIO REBALANCING LEAVES MARKET, PULLBACK SUPPORTED BY TECHNICAL FAILURE, SLOWING HOME PRICE & BUSINESS DECLINES.
US TREASURIES capped off their worst performing first half results in nearly three decades with a losing session, after reports showed the pace of US home price and manufacturing declines slowing. In addition, the markets were hit by the sobering reality of record sales of US Treasuries totaling $963 billion. Attempts to rebound due to a surprisingly weak US Consumer Confidence eventually failed as Treasuries closed weaker in the session.
Bond traders appear to be expecting a quiet lead in to the holiday weekend. Any volatility for the week should likely come as a result of surprising readings on the employment picture in the US. Expectations are for both the ADP and BLS readings for June to repeat indications of a leveling off of job losses in the US. This could result in additional pullbacks within the Treasury complex as the amount of supply compared to support from the waning Fed buying should continue to increase into November of 2009. (Currently the Fed has purchased about $180 billion of its proposed $300 billion of Treasury Debt)
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK-US 30 YEARS- Market setting up to range tradewith a downward bias setting up to a downward move toward 116-305. Daily RSI and stochastics both support the notion of a gradual pullback to support level of 115-075. Look for initial resistance at 119-020.
US 10 YEARS-Look for downward movement to initial target of 115-200, with a break of this level setting up for a test of 115-020, Resistance of range sets up at 116-090.
EURODOLLARS- December Eurodollars should try for a pullback to 9898.0, on their way to support at 9893.0. Downward target for end of July should set up at 9879.0
|
US DEBT FUTURES |
OPEN |
HIGH |
LOW |
CLOSE |
CHANGE |
|
US U9 (US 30 YRS) |
118-230 |
118-270 |
117-150 |
118-115 |
-6.5/32nds |
|
TY U9 (US 10 YRS) |
116-155 |
116-195 |
115-245 |
116-085 |
-6.0/32nds |
|
ED Z9 (EURO $) |
99.0950 |
99.1150 |
99.050 |
99.095 |
0.0 |
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
EMAIL QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS TO RICH@BINVSTGRP.COM
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Whitehall Investment Management, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
