ALARON US TREASURY FUTURES REPORT 04/15/2009

ECONOMIC DATA 04/16/2009: all times EST

  • 8:30 AM US HOUSING STARTS (570 K), US WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS (660 K)
  • 10: 00 AM PHILADELPHIA FED SURVEY (-30.2)

SUMMARY OF DATA

04/15/09 US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (-0.1% 0.2%) EX FOOD/ENERGY (-0.2% 0.2%), EMPIRE STATE MANU INDEX (-14.7 VS.-34.0)9:15 AM US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (-1.4% VS.-0.8%)

10:30 AM EIA INVENTORY (CL-5.6 MILLION, DIS -1.2 MILLION, RBOB -0.9K) 1:00 PM HOUSING MARKET INDEX (14 vs.9)

US TREASURIES PULBACK FROM GAINS AS FEDERAL RESERVE TAKES A BREAK FROM PURCHASES. ECONOMIC DATA OFFERS SUPPORT TO EQUITIES, LESS ATTRACTIVE FOR FIXED INCOME.

US Treasuries staged an early pull back in Wednesday’s session as the Federal Reserve took a day off from the stepped up addition of Treasury Debt to its balance sheet. Tomorrow is the last scheduled Fed purchase for the week. Government debt markets took inverse cues from the equities, falling as equities found support, rising as upward momentum stalled. The pullback did not last as an afternoon report on homebuilder sentiment staged the largest month to month rise in nearly six years. Sentiment changed and ignited short covering in Treasury on expectations that the recovery in housing will spur increased buying of Treasuries as a hedge against increasing supplies of mortgage backed securities.

The market remained limited on the downside ahead of the next Fed purchase of Treasury debt. This week has seen the largest overall acquisition of US obligations by the Federal Reserve since the implementation of its support plan back in March. The purchases have remained center stage for traders and investors during a week which has had no major issues of long yielding debt by the US Treasury. Overall this has been a quiet week for Treasuries, which appear likely to remain range bound, moving inversely with equities during earnings season.

Technically, June Treasury futures remain tediously range bound awaiting a catalyst that will create momentum for a breakout. Support & resistance levels remain basically unchanged. Technically, June 30 years continue to trade within their range. Recent upward movement should find initial resistance at 128.270. A break of this level should offer a setup to test 130.040. Support for the market sets up at 126.030, with 125.120 remaining a key support level.

US DEBT FUTURES

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

CHANGE

US M9 (US 30 YRS)

127.230

128.080

126.240

127.295

+6.5/32nds

TY M9 (US 10 YRS)

123.185

123.275

123.055

123.255

+6.5/32nds

bond_report.JPG

Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.