By FX Empire.com
The USD/CAD pair rallied to the upside on Monday, where the U.S. dollar gained strong momentum against major currencies on mounting concerns over the fiscal health of the United States after the “supercommittee”, which is responsible for delivering budget cuts of at least $1.2 trillion over the next decade by Nov. 23, was reported to have failed to reach an agreement amid difference between Democrats and Republicans over raising tax revenues, while fears from Europe continued to dominate traders as well, which boosted demand for lower yielding assets, leading the U.S. dollar to rise and putting strong negative pressure on dollar denominated assets including gold.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, where rising yields in Europe suggest investors are concerned amid the uncertainty that is surrounding the outlook of the EU debt crisis. Traders will be also eyeing the latest developments regarding the budget deficit deal and whether U.S. lawmakers will be able to reach an agreement or not. Moreover, traders will be eyeing the second GDP estimate for the third quarter of this year from the United States, while finally, the FOMC Minutes are due to be released later on Tuesday. Canada meanwhile, will release the retail sales index for September.
The USD/CAD pair should still be able to rise if concerns from Europe continue to dominate global markets, but we still expect volatility to continue to dominate trading, especially as the credit rating outlook for the United States could be in jeopardy amid the failure to reach an agreement to reduce the deficit, and that should also lead to high levels of fluctuations for the USD/CAD pair. But overall, we expect the pair to extend its gains over the course of this week.
Tuesday November 22:
At 13:30 GMT, Canada will release the retail sales for September, where retail sales are expected rise by 0.5% in line with the prior rise in August, while retail sales excluding autos are expected to rise by 0.3%, compared with 0.4% in August.
At 13:30 GMT, the United States will join the session with the GDP figures for the third quarter in a second reading, where the quarterly annualized GDP index could have lingered at 2.5%, while the personal consumption index could have stood at 2.4%, in the time GDP price index is expected unchanged at 2.5%. Finally, the quarterly core PCE is projected steady at 2.1%.
At 19:00 GMT the Federal Reserve will release the Minutes of FOMC last meeting.
Originally posted here
