USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 10, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD opened after the holiday weekend and is holding at 0.9985

CAD is weak leading into the North American open, but still well within its nine-week range. Thursday’s strong Canadian report (where +82k jobs were added) was met with a rally in CAD, which closed the day up +0.3% against the USD and +1.0% against EUR; however CAD was more sensitive than other currencies to the weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls on Friday and gave up these gains. Today’s data includes the BoC Q1 business outlook.

Economic Data April 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Apr. 09	JPY	Adjusted Current Account	0.85T	0.66T	0.14T
CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	3.6%	3.3%	3.2%
CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.0%
JPY	Economy Watchers Current Index	51.8	46.5	45.9
RUB	Russian Interest Rate Decision	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
TRY	Turkish Industrial Production (YoY)	4.40%	3.50%	1.50%
TWD	Taiwanese Trade Balance	2.36B	2.19B	2.83B
EUR	Greek CPI (YoY)	1.70%	2.10%
EUR	Greek Industrial Production (YoY)	-8.30%	-5.00%
EUR	Portuguese Trade Balance	-2.88B	-3.08B
CLP	Chilean Trade Balance	0.91B	0.83B	0.63B
MXN	Mexican CPI (YoY)	3.73%	3.77%	3.87%
USD	CB Employment Trends Index	107.28	107.47

Economic Events for April 10, 2012

00:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance -12% -13%

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance measures the percentage of surveyors reporting a house price increase in their designated area. A level above 0.0% indicates more surveyors reported a rise in prices; below indicates more reported a fall. The report is a leading indicator of house price inflation as surveyors have access to the latest price data.

00:15 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.

06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.1%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

08:00 DKK Danish CPI (YoY) 2.70% 2.80%

The purpose of the consumer price index is to measure the development of the prices charged to consumers for goods and services bought by private households in Denmark. The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure, which is used by a large number of public and private companies and interested members of the general public in connection with monitoring economic developments. Furthermore, the index is used for regulating (indexation) contracts, pensions, wages and salaries, rents, etc. The index weights for the detailed indices (elementary aggregate indices) are calculated on the basis of data from the national accounts on final consumption expenditure of households in Denmark, supplemented by detailed information from the Household Budget Survey.

17:30 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy

Government Bond Auctions April 10-20, 2012

Apr 10 08:30 Holland Eur 2.5-3.5bn reopened Jan 2017 DSL auction

Apr 10 09:15 Austria Eur 1.32bn 3.2% Feb 2017 & 3.4% Nov 2022 RAGBs

Apr 10 14:30 UK Details I/L Gilt auction on Apr 19

Apr 10 17:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Apr 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction

Apr 11 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn new Jul 2022 Bund

Apr 11 09:10 Sweden Sek 5.0bn Jul 2012 & Sek 5.0bn Sep 2012 T-bills

Apr 11 09:30 Swiss Bond auction

Apr 11 09:30 UK Gbp 4.5bn 1.0% Sep 2017 Conventional Gilt

Apr 11 10:00 Norway Details T-bill auction on Apr 16

Apr 11 14:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Apr 18

Apr 11 17:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes

Apr 12 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Apr 12 09:30 UK Gbp 2.0bn 4.25% Jun 2032 Conventional Gilt

Apr 12 15:00 US Announces auction of 5Y TIPS on Apr 19

Apr 12 17:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds

Apr 13 10:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction

Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction

Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction

Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction

Apr 19 15:00 US Announces 2Y Notes on Apr 24, 5Y Notes on Apr 25 & 7Y Notes on Apr 26

Apr 19 17:00 US Auctions 5Y TIPS

Apr 20 15:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Apr 24 & BOT on Apr 26

Originally posted here