USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 13, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9967 dropping from 1.0039. The Canadian Trade Balance was reported well under forecast, surprising the markets. Economists had projected 2.0B and the figure was 0.3B. The Looney was weakened by this data.

On the other side of the border, the US Trade Balance was report well over forecast, but the USD lost when the unemployment numbers were released.

The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits jumped by 13,000 last week to 380,000, the highest level since late January, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Much of the increase in the week ended April 7 was related to spring break, when many school bus drivers and cafeteria workers are allowed to file claims. Claims from two weeks ago, however, were revised up to 367,000 from 357,000, an unusually sharp adjustment.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $46 billion in February from $52.5 billion in January for a 12.4% drop, the largest percent decline since May 2009, the Commerce Department reported.

The number of foreclosure filings in March fell to their lowest level since July 2007, according to a report from RealtyTrac, released on today.

U.S. wholesale prices were unchanged in March as a recent surge in energy prices was mostly reversed, the Labor Department. Excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, core wholesale prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3

The economy isn’t strong enough on a sustained basis to make a big dent in the unemployment rate, said William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, in a speech in Syracuse. He anticipated first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 2.25%, which is around the economy’s potential growth rate.

Economic Reports April 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

AUD	Employment Change	44.0K	6.0K	-15.4K
AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.2%	5.3%	5.2%
EUR	French CPI (MoM)	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%
INR	Indian Industrial Production (YoY)	4.1%	6.6%	1.1%
SEK	Swedish CPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.5%	1.9%
EUR	Dutch Retail Sales (YoY)	0.90%	0.80%
EUR	ECB Monthly Report
GBP	Trade Balance	-8.8B	-7.7B	-7.9B
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.5%	-0.3%	0.0%
EUR	Portuguese CPI (MoM)	1.20%	0.10%
EUR	Greek Unemployment Rate	21.80%	21.20%
USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
USD	PPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%
CAD	Trade Balance	0.3B	2.0B	2.0B
USD	Trade Balance	-46.0B	-52.0B	-52.5B
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	380K	355K	367K
USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3251K	3335K	3349K

Economic Events for April 13, 2012

03:00 CNY Chinese Fixed Asset Investment 20.8% 21.5%

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment measures the change in the total spending on non-rural capital investments such as factories, roads, power grids, and property.

03:00 CNY Chinese GDP (YoY) 8.3% 8.9%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

03:00 CNY Chinese Industrial Production 11.5% 11.4%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

03:00 CNY Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 15.0% 14.7%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

07:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.3%

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

07:00 EUR Finnish CPI (YoY) 3.10%

Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of inflation and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed bask of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys. From 1995 the weight structure is based on the European National Accounting System Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP).The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change over a specified period of time in the general level of prices of goods and services that a given population acquires, uses or pays for consumption. It compares a household’s cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period.

09:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) 1.2% 2.1%

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.1%

13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

14:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 76.2 76.2

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

18:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 13 10:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction

Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction

Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction

Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction

Originally posted here