USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 17, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD remains above the parity level, the greenback is outshining the Looney, trading at 1.0022 holding close to the high for the day. In Canada there were a few eco data there was one eco data release, Foreign Securities Purchases, which surprised the markets by well exceeding the forecast.

Crude oil continued to show weakness which is a negative as Canada is a major exporter.

Overall the markets are waiting for Tuesdays Bank of Canada decisions and statements along with several other eco releases.

In the US today retail spending in the U.S. rose sharply for the third straight month, up 0.8% in March, as consumers continued to splurge on a wide range of goods and services. The Empire State index for April dropped markedly to a reading of 6.56 from 20.21 in March. Economists had anticipated a reading of 18.0.

Home-builder sentiment dropped in April for the first time in seven months, as growing traffic at new-build sites hasn’t yet led to sales. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index dropped 3 points.

Business inventories rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February to $1.58 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Economists had forecast a 0.5% gain. The increase was led once again by the auto sector.

Economic Reports for April 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	2.9%	1.6%
JPY	BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.5%	0.8%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.8%	0.6%	0.9%
CAD	Foreign Securities Purchases	12.50B	7.23B	-4.28B
USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.8%	0.3%	1.0%
USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	6.6	18.0	20.2
USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	10.1B	41.3B	102.4B

Economic Events scheduled for April 17, 2012 that affect the Canadian and American Markets

13:30 USD Building Permits 0.71M 0.71M

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.

13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.70M 0.70M

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.

13:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -0.90%

Manufacturing Sales measures the change in the overall value of sales made at the manufacturing level.

14:00 CAD Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

14:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction

Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction

Originally posted here