By FXEmpire.com
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 2, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is trading 1.0011 falling close to parity while we wait for the Fed statement.
CAD is up 0.2% from yesterday’s close and is starting August close to parity as markets digest the weak global data released overnight. While the global PMI’s are important to broader market sentiment, for USDCAD it is the relative story that matters, and in comparison to the US, Canada’s fundamentals remain strong domestic GDP release was weaker than expectations but still came in at a respectable 2.4% y/y for May, in comparison to the US Q2 release of 1.5% q/q annualized. In terms of central banks, the BoC retains a hawkish rhetoric and remains restricted to conventional monetary policy in contrast to the Fed, which has embarked on two rounds of QE, operation twist, and an ongoing extension of its low rate guidance (currently out more than two years to late 2014).
Please see our EUR/USD or our Gold Fundamental Analysis, which we are holding until after the FOMC statement.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Economic Data August 1, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug. 01 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
2.0% |
2.2% |
|
KRW |
South Korean CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.10 |
50.30 |
50.20 |
|
|
AUD |
House Price Index (QoQ) |
0.50% |
-0.50% |
-0.10% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.50 |
49.50 |
||
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
-0.7% |
-0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.30 |
44.20 |
44.60 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
43.4 |
43.6 |
43.6 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
43.0 |
43.3 |
43.3 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
44.0 |
44.1 |
44.1 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.4 |
48.7 |
48.4 |
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
163K |
120K |
176K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug 2 |
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
353K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.7% |
||
|
Aug 3 |
12:30 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
80K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
0.3% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 02 08:30 Spain
Aug 06 09:10 Norway
Aug 07 00:30 Japan
Aug 07 09:15 Austria
Aug 07 14:30 UK
Aug 07 17:00 US
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Click here a current USD/CAD Chart.
Originally posted here
