USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 14, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Economic Events: (GMT)

00:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance -18% -16%

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance measures the percentage of surveyors reporting a house price increase in their designated area. A level above 0.0% indicates more surveyors reported a rise in prices; below indicates more reported a fall. The report is a leading indicator of house price inflation as surveyors have access to the latest price data.

07:45 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 0.2% 0.0%

French Non-farm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

09:30 GBP Core CPI (YoY) 2.7% 3.0%

09:30 GBP CPI (YoY) 3.6% 4.2%

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

10:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) -1.2% -0.1%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -11.6 -21.6

10:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -21.1 -32.5

The German Zentrum f?r Europ?ische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.

Ten GBP BOE Inflation Letter

In the event that the annualized rate of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) deviates by more than 1% from the mandated target rate of 2%, the Governor of the Bank of England is required to write an open letter to the chancellor of the exchequer explaining what is being done to address the situation.

10:30 EUR Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the Buoni del Tesoro Poliannuali or BTP auctioned.

Italian BTP bonds have maturities of five, ten, fifteen and thirty years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.

The yield on the BTP represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.

Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security

13:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6% -0.2%

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%

The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.

13:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% 0.1%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

15:00 USD Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (January 2009 – January 2013) is to speak. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments. ( This statement could have effect on the USD)

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is currently trading slightly higher at 0.9988 slightly down from this mornings opening of 1.009. The pair is duplicating all the major currency pairs today, moving on news from Greece and the interaction of the EUR/USD. The markets moved on the austerity vote in Greece and then on comments from the eurozone over the legislation and the implementation of austerity measures and the civil and political unrest in Greece. This is still not a sealed deal.

Mondays weeks major economic reports actual v. forecast.

JPY	GDP (QoQ)	-0.6%	-0.3%	1.4%
JPY	GDP Price Index (YoY)	-1.6%	-1.6%	-2.1%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	1.4%	0.8%	-0.6%
EUR		German WPI (MoM)	1.2%	0.4%	0.0%
CHF		PPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%
EUR		German 6-Month Bubill Auction	0.08%	-0.01%
ALL		OECD Composite Leading Indicators	100.4	105.8	100.2

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-24

Feb 14 09:30 Netherlands Eur 3.0bn-4.0bn Jan 2017 DSL

Feb 14 09:30 Spain Eur 4.5-5.5bn 12 & 8M T-bill auction

Feb 14 10:10 Greece Eur1.0bn 3M T-bill auctionFeb 14 10:10 Italy

Eur 2.75-4bn 6% Nov 2014 BTPs & Eur 1-2bn 3% Nov 2015

& 4% Feb 2017 BTPs

Feb 14 10:30 Belgium Eur 1.8bn May 2012 & Eur 1.2bn Feb 2013 T-bills

Feb 15 10:10 Sweden Sek 10bn May 2012 T-bills

Feb 15 10:30 Portugal Eur 1.5-2bn May & Aug 2012 and Feb 2013 T-bills

Feb 16 01.30 Japan Auctions 5-year JGBs

Feb 16 09:30 Spain

Eur 3.0-4.0bn 4.4% Jan 2015, 4% Jul 2015 and 4.3% Oct

2019 Obligaciones

Feb 16 10.30 UK Gbp 1.75bn 4.5% Sep 2034 conventional Gilt

Feb 16 09:50 France

Eur 7-8.5bn 3% Jul 2014, 2.5% Jan 2015 & new 1.75% Feb

2017 BTANs

Feb 16 10:50 France

Eur 1.3-1.8bn 1.1% Jul 2022 OATei, 2.1% Jul 2023 OATi &

1.85% Jul 2027 OATei

Feb 16 16:00 US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb

22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23

Feb 16 18:00 US Usd 9bn 30Y TIPS

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

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