Economic Events: (GMT)
13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 14.2 13.5
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.
14:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 62.3B 59.8B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.
14:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) 0.7% 0.4%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
17:15 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 15, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is currently trading 1.0011 up from the opening of 0.9997. The USD stumbled on negative data on retail sales coming in under forecast dissappointing the markets.
On the other hand the greenback was strengthened by Moody’s downgrades of 6 european countries. Including a negative warning to the UK.
News just out says that the EU has cancelled Wednesdays meeting to review the Greek agreement, as the budget cuts fall short close to 1/2 billion euros. The plan as been sent back to Greece for comment and revision. Default seems likely. This should push the dollar up in trading early on Wednesday.
Tuesday Economic Reports actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-16% |
-18% |
-16% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
3 |
|
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
3.8% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|||
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
HUF |
Hungarian CPI (YoY) |
5.5% |
5.0% |
4.1% |
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.7% |
3.0% |
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.6% |
4.2% |
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
5.4 |
-11.6 |
-21.6 |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.1% |
-1.2% |
0.0% |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-8.1 |
-21.1 |
-32.5 |
|
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter |
|||
|
BRL |
Brazilian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.7% |
7.6% |
6.7% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 15 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 15 10:30 Portugal Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
Originally posted here
