USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 19, 2012, Forecast
Economic Events: (GMT)
13:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.90% -0.80%
Manufacturing Sales measures the change in the overall value of sales made at the manufacturing level.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 385.00K 399.00K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3590.00K 3628.00K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. If the report comes in under the 385K we can expect to see the USD fall against the Swissier, but if the report is at the 399K level or above expect to see the USD rally and trend upwards on solid economic news.
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.00M
The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.
Analysis and Recommendations:
Support and Resistance levels for tomorrow S: 1.0140 1.0105 1.0075
R: 1.0210 1.0250 1.0320
The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.0123 down from opening at 101.52
The IMF noted today, that they would discuss increasing their funding to 1 trillion euros, at their meeting the end of February, though this news pushed the euro, it is an old story and just a discussion some 6 weeks from now. The USD was down a bit today, on some inflation comments. Tomorrows jobs reports in the US should meet forecasts and have little effect on the markets. Also tomorrow crude inventories reports will be out, but again no major changes here. If either reports exceed or fall short of forecasts, then there might be some action between the pair.
The US Government today turned down a Canadian company’s plans to build a pipeline from the US/Canada border to the Gulf of Mexico, to transport oil from the Canadian tar fields through Oklahoma and onto the Gulf of Mexico. This pipeline would serve many uses and have many benefits. The pipeline is seen as one way to deal with a supply situation in Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil, and also as an inexpensive transport to get oil from the Canadian tar sands and oil fields on the border of Canada to U.S. refinery industry along the Gulf of Mexico.
The most important benefit means less reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports. The pipeline project, however, has been under intense criticism from environmentalists.
The loonie will most likely trade sideways within a tight range for the next day or so
Originally posted here
