USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 26, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD has gained 0.4% and is a mid-performer at 1.0172. USDCAD failed to close above the 50-day MA of 1.0227 and has retraced most of yesterday’s rally. The shift has come on the back of better sentiment out of Europe as well as a renewed focus on potential Fed action. The only domestic data today is Teranet’s housing price index, which is unlikely to be market moving. CAD’s rolling 30-day correlations with the S&P index; VIX, AUD and oil prices are strong but remain relatively low with EUR. This implies that CAD is moving in tandem with broader market moves, but that it is not all tunnel vision on EUR. Over the medium term, we expect CAD to outperform USD and many of its crosses.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Jul. 25	JPY	Trade Balance	-0.30T	-0.39T	-0.62T
AUD	CPI (QoQ)	0.5%	0.6%	0.1%
AUD	Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)	0.5%	0.6%	0.3%
EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	103.3	104.7	105.2
EUR	German Current Assessment	111.6	113.0	113.9
EUR	German Business Expectations	95.6	96.7	97.2
GBP	GDP (QoQ)	-0.7%	-0.2%	-0.3%
GBP	GDP (YoY)	-0.8%	-0.3%	-0.2%
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-6	-12	-11
USD	New Home Sales	372K	369K

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Jul 26	6:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.8
	8:00	EUR	M3 Money Supply y/y	2.9%
	12:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	0.7%
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales m/m	5.9%
Jul 27	27th-31st	GBP	Nationwide HPI m/m	-0.6%
	All Day	EUR	German Prelim CPI m/m	-0.1%
	7:00	CHF	KOF Economic Barometer	1.16
	12:30	USD	Advance GDP q/q	1.9%
	13:55	USD	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.0

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Originally posted here