By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is trading at 1.02556. The CAD is unchanged vs the USD and likely to trade on broader market sentiment in the absence of domestic data. Key drivers such as equity futures and oil prices are not suggestive of significant movement as they continue to trade in a limited range. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister indicate an expectation for (currently) loose supply-demand balances to continue as a result of diminished demand. This suggests continued pressure on oil prices that may pose a near term challenge to any CAD rally, given that the 30 day rolling correlation between CAD and WTI remains near its 12-month high at 0.93.
Speaking to Canadian media outlet RDI, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney yesterday repeated the phrase that has been in the last two BoC statements that “some stimulus withdrawal may become needed”. We’ve commented on this before, and have noted that ‘may become necessary’ is a caveat that includes neither a time at which the withdrawal of stimulus will happen nor even certainty that the withdrawal of stimulus will become necessary. Either way, Canada OIS continue to price moderate easing of monetary policy over the next few quarters. Our bias is towards the view that the BoC will be on hold for a while yet.
The OECD will release its Economic Survey of Canada today, and could make headlines depending on the suggestions that it includes based on its review of Canadian macroeconomic factors.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 13, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Importance |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 13 |
00:00 |
JPY |
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
||||
|
01:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
0.30% |
0.80% |
|||
|
06:30 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
||
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
||
|
08:15 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.8% |
-1.0% |
-0.1% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-1.0% |
-0.6% |
-0.2% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
0.7% |
1.1% |
1.9% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 14 |
7:30 |
CHF |
<0.25% |
<0.25% |
|
|
7:30 |
CHF |
||||
|
7:30 |
CHF |
||||
|
8:00 |
CHF |
||||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
||||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
377K |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.0% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-124B |
|||
|
Jun 15 |
8:30 |
GBP |
-8.6B |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
17.1 |
|||
|
13:00 |
USD |
36.2B |
|||
|
13:15 |
USD |
79.2% |
|||
|
13:15 |
USD |
1.1% |
|||
|
13:55 |
USD |
79.3 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 14 09:10 Italy
Jun 14 09:30 UK
Jun 14 15:00 US
Jun 14 17:00 US
Click here for further USD/CAD Forecast.
Originally posted here
