By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD saw the Looney gain some strength today as the USD lost momentum. The pair is trading down at 1.0334.
The rally has come on the back of a decline in risk aversion driving a broadly weaker USD, stronger than expected Australian GDP providing hope for the growth currencies and yesterday’s still relatively hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada – as market is pricing in just a 20% chance of an interest rate cut over next 9-months. There is no domestic data today, leaving the market’s focus squarely on the likelihood of further easing by the Fed.
A $1.8bn export stimulus program from India, stronger than expected Australian GDP, a renewed focus on the easing options open to the Fed and the Beige book. The ECB held rates and offered no policy, except a scalding for EU leaders saying it was time for them to get their act together. The theme today is to sit and wait even as most of the news from Europe is negative. In this environment, equities are firm, commodities are strong, bond yields are off their lows and the USD is weak. AUD is outperforming, up 1.2% after its GDP release; GBP is bouncing off oversold levels, up 0.7%, CAD is up 0.6% on the AUD story, BoC and risk appetite. Risks still loom from today’s ECB press conference leaving EUR up just 0.4%. While JPY is down 0.5% on risk appetite and increasing speculation that BoJ will lose some of its independence. Near-term highlights will come from central banks, after the ECB, then it’s the Beige book, then Fed Yellen’s speech ( press releases say the speech supports continuation of Operation Twist )then the BoE and finally Chair Bernanke on Thursday
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 6, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 06 |
02:30 |
AUD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.3% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production |
-2.2% |
-1.0% |
2.2% |
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
-0.9% |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
1.3% |
2.2% |
2.0% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 7 |
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
383K |
|
14:00 |
CAD |
Ivey PMI |
52.7 |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
||
|
Jun 8 |
12:15 |
CAD |
Housing Starts |
245K |
|
12:30 |
CAD |
Employment Change |
58.2K |
|
|
12:30 |
CAD |
Trade Balance |
0.4B |
|
|
12:30 |
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
|
|
12:30 |
CAD |
Labor Productivity q/q |
0.7% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 07 00:30 Japan
Jun 07 08:30 Spain
Jun 07 08:50 France
Jun 07 09:10 Sweden
Jun 07 15:00 US
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
Click here to read USD/CAD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
