USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis March 23, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is holding just under even at 0.9995 as the greenback moved upwards on strong employment data and investors returning to the safety of the USD, as worries about Spain and Italy surfaced in the EU.
Also the cool down in China is beginning to really show in the markets.

The News the markets have been waiting for and hoping for. The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits fell by 5,000 last week to 348,000, the lowest level since February 2008, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 353,000 from 351,000.

Applications for weekly unemployment benefits set a new four-year low, the government reports Thursday, in another sign that the U.S. labor market continues to gradually improve.

In the week ending March 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 353,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 356,250.

In Canada the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sale reports were well under forecast, disappointing the markets. Retail sales were estimated to show an increase of 1.8% but the actual came in at a meager 0.5%.

Both Crude Oil and Gold declined today also which have an overall effect on the Canadian economy as Canada’s primary export is oil.

We might see the USD move a bit farther in this pair.

Economic Reports March 22, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Mar. 22	JPY	Trade Balance	-0.31T	-0.34T	-0.49T
CHF	Trade Balance	2.68B	1.90B	1.50B
EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	47.6	50.5	50.0
EUR	French Services PMI	50.0	50.6	50.0
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	48.1	51.1	50.2
EUR	German Services PMI	51.8	53.1	52.8
EUR	Manufacturing PMI	47.7	49.6	49.0
EUR	Services PMI	48.7	49.3	48.8
EUR	Spanish industrial New Orders (YoY)	0.5%	-2.0%	-3.5%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.8%	-0.5%	0.3%
EUR	Industrial New Orders (MoM)	-2.3%	-2.1%	3.5%
BRL	Brazilian Unemployment Rate	5.7%	5.7%	5.5%
CAD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
CAD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.5%	1.8%	0.0%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	348K	350K	353K
USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3352K	3390K	3361K

Economic Events for March 23, 2012

01:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 49 47

Nationwide Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism

10:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 39.1K 38.1K

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.

12:00 CAD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.2%

12:00 CAD CPI (MoM) 0.5% 0.4%

CPI and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

15:00 USD New Home Sales 325K 321K

New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 23 10:10 Sweden

Mar 23 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Mar 27 & BOT on Mar 28

Mar 26 09:10 Norway Nok 3.0bn NST 474 3.75% May 2021 Bond

Mar 26 10:30 Germany Eur 3.0bn new Mar 2013 Bubill

Mar 26 15:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Mar 29

Mar 27 09:10 Italy CTZ/BTPei auction

Mar 27 08:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction

Mar 27 17:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Mar 28 09:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 28 17:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Mar 29 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 29 17:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Originally posted here