By FXEmpire.com
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis March 29, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is swapping hands at 0.9992 as the USD picked up a bit of momentum today on the exodus from the euro as investors looked for the safety of the USD on increased worries over Spain.
In the US, orders for big-ticket items rose 2.2% in February, government data showed Wednesday, reflecting broad strength in demand across most U.S. industries.
Economists surveyed expected durable-goods orders to increase a seasonally adjusted 2.9%, snapping back from a sharp drop in January. It was the fourth increase in five months.
There was little support for the CAD today. Gold and Oil both dropped weakening the CAD.
The USD is expected to continue climbing and should break the 1.00 if Thursday’s employment reports exceed forecast again this week. There is also the US GDP and Fed Reserve Bernanke speaking once again.
Economic Data March 28, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
EUR |
M3 Money Supply (YoY) |
2.8% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
EUR |
Private Loans (YoY) |
0.7% |
1.3% |
1.1% |
|
EUR |
Italian Business Confidence |
92.1 |
91.7 |
91.7 |
|
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) |
-3.3% |
-5.4% |
-5.6% |
|
GBP |
Current Account |
-8.5B |
-8.4B |
-10.5B |
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
EUR |
Italian 6-Month BOT Auction |
1.12% |
1.20% |
|
|
USD |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
-2.7% |
-7.4% |
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-3.0% |
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
2.2% |
3.0% |
-3.6% |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
7.1M |
2.5M |
-1.2M |
|
USD |
Gasoline Inventories |
-3.5M |
-1.7M |
-1.2M |
Economic Reports for March 29, 2012 Europe and Americas
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 6.8% 6.8%
The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month.
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -10K 0K
German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 350K 348K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3365K 3352K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
13:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) 0.9% 0.9%
The GDP Price Index measures the annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in gross domestic product. It is the broadest inflationary indicator.
13:30 USD GDP (QoQ) 3.0% 3.0%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
17:45 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Mar 29 00:30 Japan Auctions 2Y JGBs
Mar 29 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Mar 29 17:00 US Usd 29.0bn 7Y Notes
Mar 30 14:30 UK Publication of the DMO Q2 Gilt operations calendar
Mar 31 n/a Spain IGCP deadline for Q2 T-bill issuance programme
Apr 03 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Apr 03 09:30 UK Conventional Gilt Auction
Apr 04 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11
Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction
Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions
Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12
Originally posted here
