By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The Canadian Dollar moves in reaction to the US Dollar. Movements are small and easy to track and trade. The Canadian Dollar also responds to economic reports within Canada. It has little action against foreign currencies except during major moves or crisis.
The USD/CAD is the single biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices. Canada which is already the biggest exporter of oil to the US will experience a boost to its economy when oil price continue to increase. Therefore, if oil rises the Canadian dollar is likely to follow. Over the past years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 81%.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/CAD ended the week at 1.0215 falling from the beginning of the week. The USD lost momentum after poor eco data over the past two weeks began to bother investors. The USD fell on the DI from 83 to 82. The Canadian dollar was able to gain on the back of the USD.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jun 15, 2012 |
1.0215 |
1.0234 |
1.0256 |
1.0215 |
-0.19% |
|
Jun 14, 2012 |
1.0234 |
1.0286 |
1.0294 |
1.0223 |
-0.51% |
|
Jun 13, 2012 |
1.0286 |
1.0268 |
1.0304 |
1.0242 |
0.18% |
|
Jun 12, 2012 |
1.0268 |
1.0310 |
1.0317 |
1.0252 |
-0.41% |
|
Jun 11, 2012 |
1.0310 |
1.0218 |
1.0326 |
1.0201 |
0.91% |
Investors remained in risk aversion mode, but moved from the USD to gold and JPY. Canada is awaiting a response from the BoC this week.
The upcoming week will be more about news flow and market reaction to elections in Greece, France and Egypt. The USD will also remain weak, until the statement from the FOMC this week, as investors are hoping for more monetary stimulus.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic data for the week of June 11 – 15actual v. forecast for the Canadian and the US Dollar
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 13 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
USD |
PPI m/m |
-1.0% |
-0.6% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jun 14 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
377K |
380K |
|
|
Jun 15 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
74.1 |
77.5 |
79.3 |
Historical:
Highest: 1.0842 CAD on Nov 01, 2009.
Average: 1.0147 CAD over this period.
Lowest: 0.9407 CAD on Jan 26, 2011.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Canadian and US Markets
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 18 |
Day 1 |
ALL |
G20 Meetings |
|
|
Jun 19 |
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.72M |
|
Day 2 |
ALL |
G20 Meetings |
||
|
Jun 20 |
16:30 |
USD |
FOMC Statement |
|
|
18:00 |
USD |
FOMC Economic Projections |
||
|
18:15 |
USD |
FOMC Press Conference |
||
|
Jun 21 |
12:30 |
CAD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.62M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-5.8 |
|
|
Jun 22 |
12:30 |
CAD |
CPI m/m |
0.4% |
Click here for updated USD/CAD News.
Originally posted here
