USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 2, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading down at 0.9026 as the USD lost momentum closing the month. Traders seemed to look for more risk, after Euro-zone finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen agreed to temporarily boost the size of the firewall designed to contain the spread of the region’s debt crisis to 800 billion euros ($1.1 trillion) from a previously planned 500 billion euros.

In the US Americans spent money in February at the fastest pace in seven months, but a good chunk of their cash went to pay for higher energy costs and incomes rose at a much slower clip, government data showed.

Consumer sentiment in March reached the highest in more than a year, as consumers grew more confident about their current economic conditions.

The University of Michigan said the final reading for the consumer-sentiment gauge in March hit 76.2 — the highest since February 2011. Last month sentiment was at 75.3.

The Chicago PMI, or Chicago business barometer by its formal name, decelerated in March but marked its fifth straight month above 60%. The PMI fell to 62.2% in March from 64.0% in February.

With the US data supporting the recovery, and the EU under control with the new super sized firewall and a well accepted Spanish Budget, the markets seemed to have more positive sentiment.

Economic Reports March 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

JPY	Unemployment Rate	4.5%	4.6%	4.6%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.9%	1.4%	1.9%
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	3.0%	-7.3%
EUR	French Consumer Spending (MoM)	3.0%	0.2%	-0.4%
CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	0.08	0.08	-0.11
NOK	Norwegian Retail Sales (MoM)	1.00%	-0.50%	1.10%
EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.5%	2.7%
EUR	Greek Retail Sales (YoY)	-10.30%	-12.60%
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
CAD	GDP (MoM)	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%
USD	Chicago PMI	62.2	63.1	64.0
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	76.2	75.1	74.3

Economic Events for Monday, April 2, 2012 Europe and America

08:15 CHF Retail Sales (YoY)

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

08:30 CHF SVME PMI

08:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI

08:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI

09:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI

09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 03 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03 09:30 UK Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction

Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions

Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

Originally posted here