USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 5, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

REMEMBER, MOST GLOBAL MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON FRIDAY APRIL 6, 2012 AND MANY ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY APRIL 9, 2012 ALSO. VOLUME WILL BE LIGHT AND TRADERS WILL BE POSITIONING THEMSELVES FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ECONOMIC REPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELEASED ON FRIDAY, IN THE US THE NON FARMS PAYROLL REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY

The USD/CHF moved up today, as the greenback was able to gain on all of its trading partners. The pair is trading at 0.9163 moving off the low of 0.9096.

The release of the FOMC minutes on Tuesday afternoon (EST) set of a global sell off of assets, commodities and equities which was fueled again today over mounting worries about Spain.

The USD was further supported a labor market report showing improvement at a moderate pace, with private payrolls in March notching more than two years of gains, according to a monthly report released Wednesday by payrolls-processor Automatic Data Processing Inc.

Despite the moderate pace of the recovery, there were many reasons to be optimistic about the outlook, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday. In a speech to The Economic Club of Chicago, Geithner said that the economy was “making a lot of progress” working down excess debt. Household debt is down 17 percentage points relative to income since before the crisis, Geithner said. At the same time, financial sector leverage is down “substantially” and credit is expanding, he said. The challenge facing the American economy is not primarily about the health of the business community.

The number of mortgage applications filed in the U.S. last week rose 4.8% from the prior week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday, as re-financings picked up following six straight weeks of declines

Economic Events April 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

AUD	Trade Balance	-0.48B	1.00B	-0.97B
GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	2.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%
GBP	Services PMI	55.3	53.5	53.8
EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.1%	0.1%	1.1%
EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	0.3%	1.2%	-1.8%
PLN	Polish Interest Rate Decision	4.50%	4.50%	4.50%
EUR	Interest Rate Decision	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%
USD	Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks
RUB	Russian CPI (MoM)	0.6%	0.5%	0.4%
USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	209K	200K	230K
EUR	ECB Press Conference
USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	56.0	57.0	57.3

Economic Events scheduled for April 5, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets

08:15 CHF CPI (MoM) 0.4% 0.3%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

08:30 EUR Dutch CPI (YoY) 2.50%

Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of inflation and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed basket of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys.

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 355K 359K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3350K 3340K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction

Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions

Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

Originally posted here