By FX Empire.com
Economic Events: (GMT)
07:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) -0.4% -0.4%
The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR
08:15 CHF CPI (MoM) -0.3% -0.2%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
09:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) 0.4% -0.6%
Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP
13:30 USD Trade Balance -48.4B -47.8B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
14:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 74.3 75.0
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
17:30 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -65.2B -86.0B
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CHF trading at 0.9114 after opening at 0.9125. Today, the Franc simply went along for the ride with the USD. The USD surged on better then forecast results of the initial jobs data, the Unemployment Initial claims data which is a good indicator of whether layoffs are rising or falling. They’ve declined sharply since last summer, meaning that more people are finding work or fewer are losing their jobs.
Jobless claims dropped by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 358,000 in the week ended Feb. 4, the Labor Department said. That’s near a four-year low. This was great news for the US as the data supported last weeks data that unemployment had dropped to 8.3% from 8.5%. This news should spur a round of consumer confidence and help spending in the US. This also supports economists statements that the US economy is turning around. The dollar gained on this news, but was weakened by the news on Greece.
Earlier in the day the USD was trading up on worries about Greece and then continued to move upwards on strong economic data.
Shortly thereafter, Greek Prime Minister Luca Papademos’s office announced this afternoon that talks “were successfully concluded.”
These things will happen in this order:
- Greek Parliament passes austerity legislation
- Troika approves second bailout
- PSI deal completed
The Parliamentary vote is expected on Sunday and the bond swap is supposed to start Monday. All the deals appear to be in place, so it’s possible but there is not much room for error. Expect a very skittish market late Friday, Sunday and Monday.
The ECB and the BoE maintained current interest rates and the BoE announced additional QE of 50billions GBP.
The dollar should pick up additional strenght as economic reports are released in the US on Friday.
Thursdays Economic Reports ( actual v. forecast )
|
AUD |
1.00 |
-3.00 |
||
|
KRW |
3.25% |
3.25% |
3.25% |
|
|
CNY |
4.5% |
4.0% |
4.1% |
|
|
CNY |
0.7% |
0.8% |
1.7% |
|
|
CHF |
-19 |
-22 |
-24 |
|
|
GBP |
0.5% |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
|
|
GBP |
1.0% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
-7.1B |
-8.4B |
-8.9B |
|
|
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
EUR |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
USD |
358K |
370K |
373K |
|
|
EUR |
||||
|
USD |
3515K |
3525K |
3451K |
|
|
MXN |
4.0% |
4.0% |
3.8% |
|
|
GBP |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
Originally posted here
