Economic Events: (GMT)
09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
13:30 USD Building Permits 0.68M 0.67M
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
13:30 USD Housing Starts 0.68M 0.66M
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 364K 358K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3550K 3515K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
14:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speaky on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions, in Washington DC
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8.4 7.3
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CHF trading at 0.9232 up from mid day trading, the pair dropped earlier in the day, but as the day progressed fears and worries about Greece pushed the USD to seek a higher level. The pair was trading at 0.9166 until the market sentiment turned and the pair have moved up steadily.
There was little news in Switzerland today but a huge amount of data out in the US.
U.S. industrial production was flat in January, but the increase in December was much larger than first reported, according to the Federal Reserve.
Last month, industrial production was unchanged, as a 0.7% increase among manufacturers was offset by sharp declines in mining and utilities, data from the U.S. central bank showed Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast industrial production to climb 0.8%.
Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes climbed in February for the fifth straight month to reach the highest level in more than four years, according to a survey released Wednesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 29 in February from 25 in January, meaning the gauge has more than doubled since September.
News that only a few of the Federal Open Market Committee favored another round of quantitative easing, or QE3, according to minutes of the last meeting released Wednesday. Others on the Fed’s interest rate setting body indicated that QE3 “could” become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below the 2% target for a long time, the minutes show. A majority on the FOMC thought that sales of assets on its balance sheet would start “no earlier” than 2015.
The USD should remain strong over the course of the day. There are several reports due on Thursday in the US, that will effect the USD.
Wednesday Economic Data actual v. forecast
|
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) |
1.3% |
-2.7% |
|
|
KRW |
South Korean Trade Balance |
-2.03B |
-1.96B |
|
|
JPY |
||||
|
SGD |
Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY) |
4.2% |
7.0% |
6.2% |
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
|
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
|
EUR |
Spanish CPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.4% |
|
SEK |
Swedish GDP (QoQ) |
3.4% |
2.1% |
3.0% |
|
HUF |
Hungarian GDP (YoY) |
1.4% |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
CZK |
Czech GDP (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
EUR |
Austrian GDP (YoY) |
1.2% |
2.5% |
|
|
EUR |
Netherlands GDP (YoY) |
-0.7% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
EUR |
Italian GDP (QoQ) |
-0.7% |
-0.6% |
-0.2% |
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
2.0% |
1.8% |
2.0% |
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
6.9K |
3.2K |
1.9K |
|
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.4% |
8.4% |
8.4% |
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
|
EUR |
Trade Balance |
7.5B |
4.7B |
6.1B |
|
CHF |
ZEW Expectations |
-21.2 |
-50.1 |
|
|
MYR |
5.2% |
4.5% |
5.8% |
|
|
GBP |
BoE Inflation Report |
|||
|
GBP |
BoE Gov King Speaks |
|||
|
USD |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
-1.0% |
7.5% |
|
|
PLN |
Polish CPI (YoY) |
4.1% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
19.5 |
14.2 |
13.5 |
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
17.9B |
62.3B |
61.3B |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
Originally posted here
