By FX Empire.com
Economic Events: (GMT)
Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast
US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday
|
Feb. 21 |
00:30 |
AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
13:30 |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) | ||
|
Feb. 22 |
09:30 |
GBP |
MPC Meeting Minutes |
|
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales | |
|
Feb. 23 |
09:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims | |
|
Feb. 24 |
07:00 |
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) | |
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast
Historical
Highest: 1.1664 CHF on 07 Jun 2010.
Average: 0.9699 CHF over this period.
Lowest: 0.7224 CHF on 09 Aug 2011.
Rules:
USD/CHF: The pair tends to break to an all-time low, then range back to the previous low. The ranges are very distinct. A break to the upside will likely meet another previous low. Pair are reliable.
Characteristics
Average broker spread: 4-5 pips
Daily range average: 120-135 pips
Best time to trade: Euro Session (0700 GMT – 1700 GMT)
Factors affecting the USD/CHF rate:
- Global stability and global recovery will send USD/CHF higher
- USD/CHF rallies on geopolitical instability
Trading the USD/CHF
Trading Experience: Moderate and Advanced currency traders
Trading Style: Day trading and Swing trades
How to trade?
1) Applying Technical Analysis Analyzing Fundamental News from the CHF and US zone to make USD/CHF trading decisions.
2) Since the USD/CHF pair tends to be negatively correlated to the EUR/USD, it is always a good idea to compare both EUR/USD and USD/CHF charts in order to predict future moves, if EUR/USD breaks above an important resistance level and USD/CHF didn’t break support level yet, the USD/CHF is very likely to break below support level. This also illustrates how EUR/USD tends to lead the move ahead of USD/CHF.
Analysis and Recommendations:
USD/CHF is trading at exactly .9200. There was little news to effect the Swissie this week. There has been good to excellent news in the US with unemployment claims falling and housing starts climbing. The news had little effect on the USD as the markets were all about Greece and the settlements. The USD was strong on minute and weak the next. Early in the week politicians in Athens met the new requirements of the EU and then other problems continued to develop. There was rumor and news all week moving the markets with each bit of news.
There is little news coming this week to effect the Swissie so it will continue to be all about Greece and the USD.
US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.
Strength
- Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
- German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
- Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
- Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
- Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
- NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
- India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
- Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
- UK announces new round of QE
- Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
- China reduces bank reserves
- ECB deposit facility falls
- Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE
Weakness
- Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
- Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
- Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
- Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
- Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
- Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
- US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
- CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.
Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast
|
Feb. 14 |
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference | ||||
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
5.4 |
-11.6 |
-21.6 |
|
|
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter | ||||
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
|
|
Feb. 15 |
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
6.9K |
3.2K |
1.9K |
|
|
GBP |
BoE Inflation Report | ||||
|
GBP |
BoE Gov King Speaks | ||||
|
USD |
FOMC Meeting Minutes | ||||
|
Feb. 16 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
364K |
361K |
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks | ||||
|
Feb. 17 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
0.6% |
|
CAD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication
Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL
Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds
Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01
Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27
Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28
Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP
Originally posted here
