The Swiss economy will release few fundamentals this week, where the release will include data on inflation and business confidence. Last Friday, Swiss unemployment slipped to 3.4% in March compared with the prior 3.6% recorded in February, while the seasonally adjusted reading inched down to 3.4% from the previous 3.3%.
Thus, the pair movements will largely depend on the parade of the data released from the United States which will release important data. The progress seen in the latest US data makes the outlook for the pair to the upside, especially after Bernanke’s latest announcements that referred to the possibility of raising interest rate to halt inflation, which will probably take place after the end of the $600 billion bond-purchase program.
On the other hand, the SNB seems to keep the rate unchanged amid the stability in prices and the confident economic pace, where any sort of intervention will be in favor of depreciating the currency to boost exports that were affected the franc’s appreciation.
Monday April 11
There is absence of data from the Swiss economy and the US also which propose that trading will be calm this day.
Tuesday April 12
The Swiss economy lacks fundamentals, where the main highlight will be on US import price due at 12:30 GMT with expectations referring to a rise annually to 8.3 in March from 6.9, while trade deficit is predicted to narrow to $44.3 billion in March from $46.3. Also, monthly budget statement for March is scheduled to be out at 18:00 GMT.
Wednesday April 13
Inflation data for the Swiss economy are due at 07:15 GMT when annual and monthly product and import prices for March are out. Inflation rate is not concerning in the Swiss economy as it is far below the target and thereby may not have large impact on the pair’s movement that will probably be affected by MBA mortgage applications due at 11:00 GMT, retail sales report due at 12:30 GMT and the Fed’s beige book that will be released at 18:00 GMT.
Thursday April 14
The Swiss economy will release credit Suisse Zew survey (expectations) at 09:00 which may have effect on the pair’s movement, yet the US will release initial claims and continuing claims at 12:30 GMT which are expected to have remarkable effect on the pair. In addition, PPI data are also due at the same time of jobless claims report.
Friday April 15
Finally, the Swiss economy will not release any data while the US will release important CPI data at 12:30 GMT and empire manufacturing and total net tic flows at the same time.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook April 11 – April 15
The pound/dollar pair after recording an incline in the last two weeks, the pair’s direction will be determined by the progress seen in US data and the inflation data from the UK as a further rise in inflation may prompt policy makers to change their monetary policy.
The BoE left both interest and APF amount unchanged in April but expectations show that there will be change in the coming few months either by raising interest rate to absorb inflationary pressures or by expanding APF to boost growth which for sure will affect the pound’s direction.
Yet, the outlook, so far, seems to be to the downside due to bleak outlook for the British economy amid the daunting challenge facing policy makers to boost growth amidst the adopted severe austerity measures.
Major highlights for this week that will burden the GBP/USD pair’s trading are:
Monday April 11
As of 08:30 GMT, there will be no fundamentals from the either UK or the US which suggests that trading will be calm.
Tuesday April 12
All eyes will be on CPI for March due at 08:30 GMT which is expected to linger at 4.4% and also RPI for the same month will remain steady at 5.5%. Also visible trade balance for February is due at the same time. The news is expected to have an impact on the pair’s movements, where other data from US are expected to have little impact.
Wednesday April 13
The spotlight will be ILO unemployment data and jobless claims due at 08:30 GMT; ILO unemployment for the three months ending February will steady at 8.0%, while jobless claims for March are set to drop 3.0 thousands from the prior 10.2 thousands drop, according to median forecasts.
Thursday April 14
There will be no fundamentals from the UK and the pair’s movement will be affected by initial claims and continuing claims at 12:30 GMT.
Friday April 15
Also, the UK lack economic data while the US will release at 12:30 GMT CPI data, empire manufacturing and total net tic flows.
Originally posted here
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